Matchday 22 · Premier League 2015-16 · January 16, 2016
Aston Villa 1–1 Leicester: who deserved to win?
Aston Villa and Leicester drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Aston Villa win 1 of 10, Leicester 7, and 2 end level. Leicester made the better chances: 2.2 expected goals to 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Aston Villa | 1 | 1.05 |
 Leicester City | 1 | 2.23 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +29 Aston Villa lucky for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Aston Villa win 1, 2 end level, Leicester win 7.
- 1 AVL 1 LEI 0
- 2 AVL 2 LEI 2
- 3 AVL 1 LEI 1
- 4 AVL 0 LEI 5
- 5 AVL 2 LEI 5
- 6 AVL 0 LEI 3
- 7 AVL 0 LEI 2
- 8 AVL 0 LEI 2
- 9 AVL 1 LEI 2
- 10 AVL 3 LEI 4
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Aston Villa win 13%, 16% end level, Leicester win 71%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa by 3+ | 0.9% |
| Aston Villa by 2 | 3.1% |
| Aston Villa by 1 | 9.0% |
| Draw | 16.4% |
| Leicester by 1 | 22.0% |
| Leicester by 2 | 19.5% |
| Leicester by 3+ | 29.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Aston Villa | 14 | 1 | 1.05 | −0.05 |
 Leicester | 12 (1 pen) | 1 | 2.23 | −1.23 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 27' | Shinji Okazaki scored from a shot | 0.71 |
| 32' | Riyad Mahrez didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 74' | Rudy Gestede scored from a shot | 0.08 |
When it happened
Aston Villa’s chance of winning
As low as 11% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19' | Libor Kozák didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +3% LEI |
| 2 | 27' | Shinji Okazaki scored from a shotFinishing · 71% chance | +8% LEI |
| 3 | 32' | Riyad Mahrez didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +14% AVL |
| 4 | 65' | Leandro Bacuna didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% LEI |
| 5 | 67' | Libor Kozák didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +8% LEI |
| 6 | 74' | Rudy Gestede scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +39% AVL |
| 7 | 85' | Libor Kozák didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +9% LEI |
| 8 | 90' | Jamie Vardy didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +6% AVL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Aston Villa 12% · draw 19% · Leicester 70%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for Aston Villa
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Leicester by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Aston Villa 13% · draw 16% · Leicester 71% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 22 matches, 2015-16 · Aston Villa · Leicester
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