Matchday 22 · Premier League 2015-16 · January 17, 2016
Liverpool 0–1 Man United: who deserved to win?
Man United beat Liverpool 1–0, but the replays lean toward Liverpool: 6 wins in 10 to Man United’s 1, 3 end level. Liverpool made the better chances: 1.4 expected goals to 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Liverpool | 0 | 1.42 |
 Manchester United | 1 | 0.51 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +72 Man United very lucky · −72 Liverpool
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Liverpool win 6, 3 end level, Man United win 1.
- 1 LIV 2 MUN 1
- 2 LIV 2 MUN 1
- 3 LIV 1 MUN 0
- 4 LIV 2 MUN 0
- 5 LIV 2 MUN 0
- 6 LIV 3 MUN 0
- 7 LIV 0 MUN 0
- 8 LIV 1 MUN 1
- 9 LIV 0 MUN 0
- 10 LIV 0 MUN 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Liverpool win 58%, 28% end level, Man United win 14%. The line is what actually happened: Man United by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Liverpool by 3+ | 12.0% |
| Liverpool by 2 | 17.7% |
| Liverpool by 1 | 28.7% |
| Draw | 27.7% |
| Man United by 1 | 10.8% |
| Man United by 2 | 2.6% |
| Man United by 3+ | 0.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Liverpool | 20 | 0 | 1.42 | −1.42 |
 Man United | 7 | 1 | 0.51 | +0.49 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 77' | Wayne Mark Rooney scored from a shot | 0.18 |
When it happened
Liverpool’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9' | Adam David Lallana didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +4% MUN |
| 2 | 29' | Jordan Brian Henderson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% MUN |
| 3 | 49' | Emre Can didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +5% MUN |
| 4 | 71' | Mamadou Sakho didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +9% MUN |
| 5 | 77' | Marouane Fellaini-Bakkioui didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% LIV |
| 6 | 77' | The game turned hereWayne Mark Rooney scored from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +35% MUN |
| 7 | 88' | Christian Benteke Liolo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +5% MUN |
| 8 | 88' | James Philip Milner didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% MUN |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Liverpool 58% · draw 27% · Man United 15%
- Final margin
- Man United by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.4 for Man United
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Liverpool by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Liverpool 58% · draw 28% · Man United 14% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Man United win 28% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 22, 2015-16
- Bournemouth 3–0 Norwich Jan 16, 2016 · replay 93% for Bournemouth
- Tottenham 4–1 Sunderland Jan 16, 2016 · replay 92% for Tottenham
- Chelsea 3–3 Everton Jan 16, 2016 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Southampton 3–0 West Brom Jan 16, 2016 · replay 82% for Southampton
- Aston Villa 1–1 Leicester Jan 16, 2016 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Man City 4–0 Crystal Palace Jan 16, 2016 · replay 85% for Man City
- Newcastle 2–1 West Ham Jan 16, 2016 · replay 83% for Newcastle
- Stoke 0–0 Arsenal Jan 17, 2016 · drawn; replay 35% draws
- Swansea 1–0 Watford Jan 18, 2016 · replay 51% for Swansea