Matchday 27 · Premier League 2015-16 · February 28, 2016
Tottenham 2–1 Swansea: who deserved to win?
Tottenham beat Swansea 2–1, and the replays lean Tottenham’s way: 7 wins in 10, 1 for Swansea, 2 end level. Tottenham made the better chances: 3.2 expected goals to 1.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Tottenham Hotspur | 2 | 3.22 |
 Swansea City | 1 | 1.37 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +26 Tottenham lucky · −26 Swansea
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Tottenham win 7, 2 end level, Swansea win 1.
- 1 TOT 2 SWA 1
- 2 TOT 2 SWA 1
- 3 TOT 3 SWA 1
- 4 TOT 2 SWA 0
- 5 TOT 4 SWA 1
- 6 TOT 5 SWA 2
- 7 TOT 5 SWA 0
- 8 TOT 1 SWA 1
- 9 TOT 2 SWA 2
- 10 TOT 2 SWA 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Tottenham win 67%, 15% end level, Swansea win 18%. The line is what actually happened: Tottenham by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Tottenham by 3+ | 29.9% |
| Tottenham by 2 | 17.8% |
| Tottenham by 1 | 19.2% |
| Draw | 15.1% |
| Swansea by 1 | 10.4% |
| Swansea by 2 | 5.0% |
| Swansea by 3+ | 2.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tottenham | 34 | 2 | 3.22 | −1.22 |
 Swansea | 11 | 1 | 1.38 | −0.38 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 2' | Gylfi Þór Sigurðsson didn’t score from a shot | 0.36 |
| 10' | Harry Kane didn’t score from a shot | 0.32 |
| 18' | Alberto Paloschi scored from a shot | 0.51 |
| 45' | Eric Dier didn’t score from a shot | 0.50 |
| 69' | Nacer Chadli scored from a shot | 0.24 |
| 76' | Danny Rose scored from a shot | 0.05 |
When it happened
Tottenham’s chance of winning
As low as 14% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Gylfi Þór Sigurðsson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 36% chance | +9% TOT |
| 2 | 10' | Harry Kane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 32% chance | +7% SWA |
| 3 | 18' | Alberto Paloschi scored from a shotFinishing · 51% chance | +13% SWA |
| 4 | 45' | Eric Dier didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 50% chance | +16% SWA |
| 5 | 45' | Harry Kane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +9% SWA |
| 6 | 69' | The game turned hereKyle Walker didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chanceNacer Chadli scored from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +28% TOT |
| 7 | 74' | Nacer Chadli didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +11% SWA |
| 8 | 76' | Danny Rose scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +39% TOT |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Tottenham 75% · draw 14% · Swansea 11%
- Final margin
- Tottenham by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.6 for Swansea
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Tottenham by 1.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Tottenham 67% · draw 15% · Swansea 18% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Tottenham win 74% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 27 matches, 2015-16 · Tottenham · Swansea
More from matchday 27, 2015-16
- Leicester 1–0 Norwich Feb 27, 2016 · replay 79% for Leicester
- Southampton 1–2 Chelsea Feb 27, 2016 · replay 54% for Chelsea
- Watford 0–0 Bournemouth Feb 27, 2016 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- West Brom 3–2 Crystal Palace Feb 27, 2016 · replay 60% for West Brom
- Stoke 2–1 Aston Villa Feb 27, 2016 · replay 96% for Stoke
- West Ham 1–0 Sunderland Feb 27, 2016 · replay 52% for West Ham
- Man United 3–2 Arsenal Feb 28, 2016 · replay 34% for Man United
- Newcastle 1–1 Man City Apr 19, 2016 · drawn; replay 39% draws
- Liverpool 4–0 Everton Apr 20, 2016 · replay 99% for Liverpool