Matchday 27 · Premier League 2015-16 · February 27, 2016
West Brom 3–2 Crystal Palace: who deserved to win?
West Brom beat Crystal Palace 3–2, and the replays lean West Brom’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Crystal Palace, 3 end level. The chances were close to even (1.2 expected goals to 1.3).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 West Bromwich Albion | 3 | 1.16 |
 Crystal Palace | 2 | 1.33 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +40 West Brom lucky · −40 Crystal Palace
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. West Brom win 5, 3 end level, Crystal Palace win 2.
- 1 WBA 1 CRY 0
- 2 WBA 2 CRY 1
- 3 WBA 2 CRY 0
- 4 WBA 2 CRY 0
- 5 WBA 3 CRY 0
- 6 WBA 0 CRY 0
- 7 WBA 1 CRY 1
- 8 WBA 1 CRY 1
- 9 WBA 0 CRY 2
- 10 WBA 0 CRY 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
West Brom win 47%, 27% end level, Crystal Palace win 26%. The line is what actually happened: West Brom by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| West Brom by 3+ | 8.8% |
| West Brom by 2 | 13.5% |
| West Brom by 1 | 24.3% |
| Draw | 27.2% |
| Crystal Palace by 1 | 15.5% |
| Crystal Palace by 2 | 7.5% |
| Crystal Palace by 3+ | 3.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 West Brom | 11 | 3 | 1.16 | +1.84 |
 Crystal Palace | 16 | 2 | 1.33 | +0.67 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 11' | Craig Gardner scored from a shot | 0.64 |
| 19' | Craig Dawson scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 30' | Saido Berahino scored from a shot | 0.15 |
| 48' | Connor Wickham scored from a shot | 0.65 |
| 79' | Connor Wickham scored from a shot | 0.05 |
When it happened
West Brom’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11' | José Salomón Rondón Giménez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% CRY |
| 2 | 11' | Craig Gardner scored from a shotFinishing · 64% chance | +8% WBA |
| 3 | 19' | Craig Dawson scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +12% WBA |
| 4 | 30' | Saido Berahino scored from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +3% WBA |
| 5 | 49' | Scott Dann didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +1% WBA |
| 6 | 79' | Connor Wickham scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +5% CRY |
| 7 | 81' | Connor Wickham didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% WBA |
| 8 | 82' | Scott Dann didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% WBA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
West Brom 31% · draw 31% · Crystal Palace 38%
- Final margin
- West Brom by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for West Brom
- Luck-adjusted margin
- West Brom by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- West Brom 47% · draw 27% · Crystal Palace 26% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). West Brom win 60% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 27 matches, 2015-16 · West Brom · Crystal Palace
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