Matchday 27 · Premier League 2015-16 · February 27, 2016
Southampton 1–2 Chelsea: who deserved to win?
Chelsea beat Southampton 2–1, but the replays call it even: Chelsea win 4 of 10, Southampton 3, 3 end level. Chelsea made the better chances: 1.4 expected goals to 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Southampton | 1 | 1.07 |
 Chelsea | 2 | 1.41 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +46 Chelsea lucky · −46 Southampton
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Southampton win 3, 3 end level, Chelsea win 4.
- 1 SOU 1 CHE 0
- 2 SOU 3 CHE 2
- 3 SOU 3 CHE 1
- 4 SOU 0 CHE 0
- 5 SOU 0 CHE 0
- 6 SOU 0 CHE 0
- 7 SOU 0 CHE 3
- 8 SOU 1 CHE 3
- 9 SOU 3 CHE 4
- 10 SOU 1 CHE 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Southampton win 33%, 26% end level, Chelsea win 41%. The line is what actually happened: Chelsea by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Southampton by 3+ | 4.0% |
| Southampton by 2 | 9.0% |
| Southampton by 1 | 20.3% |
| Draw | 26.2% |
| Chelsea by 1 | 21.9% |
| Chelsea by 2 | 12.3% |
| Chelsea by 3+ | 6.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Southampton | 8 | 1 | 1.07 | −0.07 |
 Chelsea | 17 | 2 | 1.41 | +0.59 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 9' | Shane Long didn’t score from a shot | 0.39 |
| 41' | Shane Long scored from a shot | 0.37 |
| 52' | John Michael Nchekwube Obinna didn’t score from a shot | 0.46 |
| 74' | Francesc Fàbregas i Soler scored from a shot | 0.01 |
| 88' | Branislav Ivanović scored from a shot | 0.07 |
When it happened
Southampton’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 92%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9' | Shane Long didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 39% chance | +9% CHE |
| 2 | 12' | Charlie Austin didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% CHE |
| 3 | 41' | Shane Long scored from a shotFinishing · 37% chance | +18% SOU |
| 4 | 52' | John Michael Nchekwube Obinna didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 46% chance | +14% SOU |
| 5 | 58' | Diego da Silva Costa didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +9% SOU |
| 6 | 74' | Francesc Fàbregas i Soler scored from a shotFinishing · 1% chance | +39% CHE |
| 7 | 77' | Diego da Silva Costa didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +5% SOU |
| 8 | 88' | The game turned hereBranislav Ivanović scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +45% CHE |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Southampton 25% · draw 29% · Chelsea 46%
- Final margin
- Chelsea by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Chelsea
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Chelsea by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Southampton 33% · draw 26% · Chelsea 41% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Chelsea win 54% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 27 matches, 2015-16 · Southampton · Chelsea
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