Matchday 27 · Premier League 2015-16 · April 20, 2016
Liverpool 4–0 Everton: who deserved to win?
Liverpool beat Everton 4–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Liverpool win 10 of 10. Liverpool made the better chances: 3.5 expected goals to 0.1.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 Liverpool about even · −1 Everton
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Liverpool win 10, 0 end level, Everton win 0.
- 1 LIV 2 EVE 0
- 2 LIV 4 EVE 1
- 3 LIV 3 EVE 0
- 4 LIV 4 EVE 0
- 5 LIV 4 EVE 0
- 6 LIV 5 EVE 0
- 7 LIV 6 EVE 1
- 8 LIV 6 EVE 0
- 9 LIV 7 EVE 0
- 10 LIV 9 EVE 0
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Liverpool win 98%, 2% end level, Everton win 0%. The line is what actually happened: Liverpool by 4.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Liverpool by 3+ | 82.3% |
| Liverpool by 2 | 10.8% |
| Liverpool by 1 | 5.1% |
| Draw | 1.6% |
| Everton by 1 | 0.1% |
| Everton by 2 | 0.1% |
| Everton by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Liverpool | 37 | 4 | 3.53 | +0.47 |
 Everton | 3 | 0 | 0.12 | −0.12 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 5' | Adam David Lallana didn’t score from a shot | 0.37 |
| 42' | Divock Okoth Origi scored from a shot | 0.14 |
| 46' | Mamadou Sakho scored from a shot | 0.39 |
| 60' | Daniel Andre Sturridge scored from a shot | 0.55 |
| 75' | Philippe Coutinho Correia scored from a shot | 0.06 |
When it happened
Liverpool’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5' | Adam David Lallana didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 37% chance | +8% EVE |
| 2 | 11' | Kevin Mirallas didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% LIV |
| 3 | 23' | Adam David Lallana didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% EVE |
| 4 | 26' | Philippe Coutinho Correia didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 8% chance | +2% EVE |
| 5 | 27' | Mamadou Sakho didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% EVE |
| 6 | 29' | Roberto Firmino Barbosa de Oliveira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +4% EVE |
| 7 | 42' | Divock Okoth Origi scored from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +24% LIV |
| 8 | 46' | Mamadou Sakho scored from a shotFinishing · 39% chance | +7% LIV |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Liverpool 100% · draw 0% · Everton 0%
- Final margin
- Liverpool by 4
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Liverpool
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Liverpool by 3.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Liverpool 98% · draw 2% · Everton 0% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Liverpool win 99% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 27, 2015-16
- Leicester 1–0 Norwich Feb 27, 2016 · replay 79% for Leicester
- Southampton 1–2 Chelsea Feb 27, 2016 · replay 54% for Chelsea
- Watford 0–0 Bournemouth Feb 27, 2016 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- West Brom 3–2 Crystal Palace Feb 27, 2016 · replay 60% for West Brom
- Stoke 2–1 Aston Villa Feb 27, 2016 · replay 96% for Stoke
- West Ham 1–0 Sunderland Feb 27, 2016 · replay 52% for West Ham
- Man United 3–2 Arsenal Feb 28, 2016 · replay 34% for Man United
- Tottenham 2–1 Swansea Feb 28, 2016 · replay 74% for Tottenham
- Newcastle 1–1 Man City Apr 19, 2016 · drawn; replay 39% draws