Matchday 27 · Premier League 2015-16 · February 27, 2016
Stoke 2–1 Aston Villa: who deserved to win?
Stoke beat Aston Villa 2–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Stoke win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Stoke made the better chances: 2.6 expected goals to 0.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Stoke City | 2 | 2.59 |
 Aston Villa | 1 | 0.18 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 Stoke about even · −4 Aston Villa
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Stoke win 9, 1 ends level, Aston Villa win 0.
- 1 STK 1 AVL 0
- 2 STK 1 AVL 0
- 3 STK 3 AVL 1
- 4 STK 2 AVL 0
- 5 STK 3 AVL 0
- 6 STK 3 AVL 0
- 7 STK 4 AVL 0
- 8 STK 5 AVL 0
- 9 STK 6 AVL 0
- 10 STK 0 AVL 0
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Stoke win 93%, 6% end level, Aston Villa win 1%. The line is what actually happened: Stoke by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Stoke by 3+ | 56.6% |
| Stoke by 2 | 21.8% |
| Stoke by 1 | 14.5% |
| Draw | 6.0% |
| Aston Villa by 1 | 1.1% |
| Aston Villa by 2 | 0.1% |
| Aston Villa by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Stoke | 11 (1 pen) | 2 | 2.59 | −0.59 |
 Aston Villa | 5 | 1 | 0.18 | +0.82 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 50' | Marko Arnautović scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 55' | Marko Arnautović scored from a shot | 0.63 |
| 62' | Marko Arnautović didn’t score from a shot | 0.81 |
| 78' | Leandro Bacuna scored from a shot | 0.07 |
When it happened
Stoke’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6' | Jonathan Walters didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% AVL |
| 2 | 18' | Geoff Cameron didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% AVL |
| 3 | 45' | Jordan Veretout didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% STK |
| 4 | 49' | Ibrahim Afellay didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% AVL |
| 5 | 50' | Marko Arnautović scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +7% STK |
| 6 | 55' | Marko Arnautović scored from a shotFinishing · 63% chance | +4% STK |
| 7 | 78' | Leandro Bacuna scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +5% AVL |
| 8 | 88' | Rudy Gestede didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +2% STK |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Stoke 97% · draw 3% · Aston Villa 0%
- Final margin
- Stoke by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.1 for Aston Villa
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Stoke by 2.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Stoke 93% · draw 6% · Aston Villa 1% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Stoke win 96% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 27 matches, 2015-16 · Stoke · Aston Villa
More from matchday 27, 2015-16
- Leicester 1–0 Norwich Feb 27, 2016 · replay 79% for Leicester
- Southampton 1–2 Chelsea Feb 27, 2016 · replay 54% for Chelsea
- Watford 0–0 Bournemouth Feb 27, 2016 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- West Brom 3–2 Crystal Palace Feb 27, 2016 · replay 60% for West Brom
- West Ham 1–0 Sunderland Feb 27, 2016 · replay 52% for West Ham
- Man United 3–2 Arsenal Feb 28, 2016 · replay 34% for Man United
- Tottenham 2–1 Swansea Feb 28, 2016 · replay 74% for Tottenham
- Newcastle 1–1 Man City Apr 19, 2016 · drawn; replay 39% draws
- Liverpool 4–0 Everton Apr 20, 2016 · replay 99% for Liverpool