Matchday 27 · Premier League 2015-16 · February 27, 2016
West Ham 1–0 Sunderland: who deserved to win?
West Ham beat Sunderland 1–0, but the replays call it even: West Ham win 4 of 10, Sunderland 3, 3 end level. Sunderland made the better chances: 1.1 expected goals to 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 West Ham United | 1 | 0.86 |
 Sunderland | 0 | 1.13 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +48 West Ham lucky · −48 Sunderland
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. West Ham win 4, 3 end level, Sunderland win 3.
- 1 WHU 1 SUN 0
- 2 WHU 2 SUN 1
- 3 WHU 2 SUN 0
- 4 WHU 2 SUN 0
- 5 WHU 0 SUN 0
- 6 WHU 0 SUN 0
- 7 WHU 1 SUN 1
- 8 WHU 0 SUN 2
- 9 WHU 0 SUN 1
- 10 WHU 0 SUN 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
West Ham win 36%, 31% end level, Sunderland win 33%. The line is what actually happened: West Ham by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| West Ham by 3+ | 4.3% |
| West Ham by 2 | 10.1% |
| West Ham by 1 | 21.7% |
| Draw | 31.2% |
| Sunderland by 1 | 20.7% |
| Sunderland by 2 | 9.0% |
| Sunderland by 3+ | 2.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 West Ham | 9 | 1 | 0.86 | +0.14 |
 Sunderland | 13 | 0 | 1.13 | −1.13 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 29' | Michail Antonio scored from a shot | 0.01 |
| 73' | Jack Rodwell didn’t score from a shot | 0.42 |
| 76' | Andy Carroll didn’t score from a shot | 0.45 |
When it happened
West Ham’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18' | Emmanuel Emenike didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% SUN |
| 2 | 29' | Michail Antonio scored from a shotFinishing · 1% chance | +25% WHU |
| 3 | 46' | Jermain Defoe didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% WHU |
| 4 | 54' | Patrick van Aanholt didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% WHU |
| 5 | 71' | Wahbi Khazri didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 8% chance | +3% WHU |
| 6 | 73' | Jack Rodwell didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 42% chance | +16% WHU |
| 7 | 77' | Jack Rodwell didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% WHU |
| 8 | 79' | Jack Rodwell didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +5% WHU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
West Ham 28% · draw 31% · Sunderland 41%
- Final margin
- West Ham by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.0 for West Ham
- Luck-adjusted margin
- even
- Replay with same day's form
- West Ham 36% · draw 31% · Sunderland 33% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). West Ham win 52% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 27, 2015-16
- Leicester 1–0 Norwich Feb 27, 2016 · replay 79% for Leicester
- Southampton 1–2 Chelsea Feb 27, 2016 · replay 54% for Chelsea
- Watford 0–0 Bournemouth Feb 27, 2016 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- West Brom 3–2 Crystal Palace Feb 27, 2016 · replay 60% for West Brom
- Stoke 2–1 Aston Villa Feb 27, 2016 · replay 96% for Stoke
- Man United 3–2 Arsenal Feb 28, 2016 · replay 34% for Man United
- Tottenham 2–1 Swansea Feb 28, 2016 · replay 74% for Tottenham
- Newcastle 1–1 Man City Apr 19, 2016 · drawn; replay 39% draws
- Liverpool 4–0 Everton Apr 20, 2016 · replay 99% for Liverpool