Matchday 27 · Premier League 2015-16 · April 19, 2016
Newcastle 1–1 Man City: who deserved to win?
Newcastle and Man City drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Newcastle win 3 of 10, Man City 3, and 4 end level. The chances were close to even (0.6 expected goals to 0.7).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Newcastle United | 1 | 0.60 |
 Manchester City | 1 | 0.68 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +3 Newcastle about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Newcastle win 3, 4 end level, Man City win 3.
- 1 NEW 1 MCI 0
- 2 NEW 1 MCI 0
- 3 NEW 2 MCI 0
- 4 NEW 1 MCI 1
- 5 NEW 0 MCI 0
- 6 NEW 0 MCI 0
- 7 NEW 0 MCI 0
- 8 NEW 0 MCI 2
- 9 NEW 0 MCI 1
- 10 NEW 0 MCI 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Newcastle win 27%, 39% end level, Man City win 34%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Newcastle by 3+ | 1.0% |
| Newcastle by 2 | 5.7% |
| Newcastle by 1 | 20.7% |
| Draw | 38.8% |
| Man City by 1 | 23.0% |
| Man City by 2 | 8.3% |
| Man City by 3+ | 2.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Newcastle | 5 | 1 | 0.60 | +0.40 |
 Man City | 10 | 1 | 0.68 | +0.32 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 13' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo scored from a shot | 0.11 |
| 30' | Vurnon Anita scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 87' | Georginio Wijnaldum didn’t score from a shot | 0.30 |
When it happened
Newcastle’s chance of winning
As low as 28% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +23% MCI |
| 2 | 28' | Moussa Sissoko didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +5% MCI |
| 3 | 30' | Vurnon Anita scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +28% NEW |
| 4 | 53' | Jesús Navas González didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% NEW |
| 5 | 62' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +7% NEW |
| 6 | 77' | Fernando Francisco Reges didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% NEW |
| 7 | 86' | Wilfried Guemiand Bony didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +3% NEW |
| 8 | 87' | Georginio Wijnaldum didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +15% MCI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Newcastle 28% · draw 40% · Man City 32%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for Newcastle
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Man City by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Newcastle 27% · draw 39% · Man City 34% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 27, 2015-16
- Leicester 1–0 Norwich Feb 27, 2016 · replay 79% for Leicester
- Southampton 1–2 Chelsea Feb 27, 2016 · replay 54% for Chelsea
- Watford 0–0 Bournemouth Feb 27, 2016 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- West Brom 3–2 Crystal Palace Feb 27, 2016 · replay 60% for West Brom
- Stoke 2–1 Aston Villa Feb 27, 2016 · replay 96% for Stoke
- West Ham 1–0 Sunderland Feb 27, 2016 · replay 52% for West Ham
- Man United 3–2 Arsenal Feb 28, 2016 · replay 34% for Man United
- Tottenham 2–1 Swansea Feb 28, 2016 · replay 74% for Tottenham
- Liverpool 4–0 Everton Apr 20, 2016 · replay 99% for Liverpool