Matchday 27 · Premier League 2015-16 · February 28, 2016
Man United 3–2 Arsenal: who deserved to win?
Man United beat Arsenal 3–2, but the replays lean toward Arsenal: 5 wins in 10 to Man United’s 2, 3 end level. Arsenal made the better chances: 1.4 expected goals to 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Manchester United | 3 | 0.45 |
 Arsenal | 2 | 1.43 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +66 Man United very lucky · −66 Arsenal
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Man United win 2, 3 end level, Arsenal win 5.
- 1 MUN 1 ARS 0
- 2 MUN 3 ARS 1
- 3 MUN 1 ARS 1
- 4 MUN 1 ARS 1
- 5 MUN 0 ARS 0
- 6 MUN 0 ARS 3
- 7 MUN 0 ARS 2
- 8 MUN 0 ARS 1
- 9 MUN 1 ARS 2
- 10 MUN 1 ARS 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Man United win 19%, 31% end level, Arsenal win 50%. The line is what actually happened: Man United by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Man United by 3+ | 0.7% |
| Man United by 2 | 3.8% |
| Man United by 1 | 14.4% |
| Draw | 30.6% |
| Arsenal by 1 | 27.9% |
| Arsenal by 2 | 14.7% |
| Arsenal by 3+ | 7.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Man United | 7 | 3 | 0.45 | +2.55 |
 Arsenal | 13 | 2 | 1.43 | +0.57 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 6' | Ignacio Monreal Eraso didn’t score from a shot | 0.32 |
| 28' | Marcus Rashford scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 31' | Marcus Rashford scored from a shot | 0.20 |
| 39' | Daniel Nii Tackie Mensah Welbeck scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 64' | Ander Herrera Agüera scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 68' | Daniel Nii Tackie Mensah Welbeck didn’t score from a shot | 0.31 |
| 68' | Mesut Özil scored from a shot | 0.13 |
When it happened
Man United’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6' | Ignacio Monreal Eraso didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 32% chance | +8% MUN |
| 2 | 28' | Marcus Rashford scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +24% MUN |
| 3 | 31' | Marcus Rashford scored from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +10% MUN |
| 4 | 39' | Daniel Nii Tackie Mensah Welbeck scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +11% ARS |
| 5 | 64' | Ander Herrera Agüera scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +9% MUN |
| 6 | 68' | Mesut Özil scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +7% ARS |
| 7 | 79' | Olivier Giroud didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% MUN |
| 8 | 85' | Laurent Koscielny didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% MUN |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Man United 12% · draw 26% · Arsenal 63%
- Final margin
- Man United by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.5 for Man United
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arsenal by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Man United 19% · draw 31% · Arsenal 50% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Man United win 34% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 27, 2015-16
- Leicester 1–0 Norwich Feb 27, 2016 · replay 79% for Leicester
- Southampton 1–2 Chelsea Feb 27, 2016 · replay 54% for Chelsea
- Watford 0–0 Bournemouth Feb 27, 2016 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- West Brom 3–2 Crystal Palace Feb 27, 2016 · replay 60% for West Brom
- Stoke 2–1 Aston Villa Feb 27, 2016 · replay 96% for Stoke
- West Ham 1–0 Sunderland Feb 27, 2016 · replay 52% for West Ham
- Tottenham 2–1 Swansea Feb 28, 2016 · replay 74% for Tottenham
- Newcastle 1–1 Man City Apr 19, 2016 · drawn; replay 39% draws
- Liverpool 4–0 Everton Apr 20, 2016 · replay 99% for Liverpool