Matchday 33 · Premier League 2015-16 · April 9, 2016
Man City 2–1 West Brom: who deserved to win?
Man City beat West Brom 2–1, and the replays lean Man City’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for West Brom, 2 end level. Man City made the better chances: 2.1 expected goals to 1.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Manchester City | 2 | 2.09 |
 West Bromwich Albion | 1 | 1.20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +32 Man City lucky · −32 West Brom
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Man City win 6, 2 end level, West Brom win 2.
- 1 MCI 3 WBA 2
- 2 MCI 2 WBA 1
- 3 MCI 3 WBA 1
- 4 MCI 2 WBA 0
- 5 MCI 4 WBA 1
- 6 MCI 4 WBA 0
- 7 MCI 1 WBA 1
- 8 MCI 3 WBA 3
- 9 MCI 1 WBA 3
- 10 MCI 1 WBA 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Man City win 58%, 21% end level, West Brom win 21%. The line is what actually happened: Man City by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Man City by 3+ | 17.6% |
| Man City by 2 | 17.1% |
| Man City by 1 | 23.0% |
| Draw | 21.2% |
| West Brom by 1 | 13.6% |
| West Brom by 2 | 5.7% |
| West Brom by 3+ | 1.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Man City | 13 (1 pen) | 2 | 2.09 | −0.09 |
 West Brom | 13 | 1 | 1.20 | −0.20 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 5' | Stéphane Sessègnon scored from a shot | 0.03 |
| 18' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 65' | Samir Nasri scored from a shot | 0.60 |
| 73' | Saido Berahino didn’t score from a shot | 0.43 |
When it happened
Man City’s chance of winning
As low as 31% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5' | Stéphane Sessègnon scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +24% WBA |
| 2 | 18' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +6% MCI |
| 3 | 23' | Eliaquim Mangala didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% WBA |
| 4 | 65' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +7% WBA |
| 5 | 65' | Samir Nasri scored from a shotFinishing · 60% chance | +14% MCI |
| 6 | 70' | Saido Berahino didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +8% MCI |
| 7 | 73' | Saido Berahino didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 43% chance | +17% MCI |
| 8 | 93' | James McClean didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% MCI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Man City 60% · draw 24% · West Brom 16%
- Final margin
- Man City by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for Man City
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Man City by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Man City 58% · draw 21% · West Brom 21% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Man City win 68% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 33 matches, 2015-16 · Man City · West Brom
More from matchday 33, 2015-16
- Southampton 3–1 Newcastle Apr 9, 2016 · replay 92% for Southampton
- Crystal Palace 1–0 Norwich Apr 9, 2016 · replay 62% for Crystal Palace
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- Liverpool 4–1 Stoke Apr 10, 2016 · replay 88% for Liverpool
- Sunderland 0–2 Leicester Apr 10, 2016 · replay 92% for Leicester
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