Matchday 33 · Premier League 2015-16 · April 10, 2016
Sunderland 0–2 Leicester: who deserved to win?
Leicester beat Sunderland 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Leicester win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Leicester made the better chances: 3.0 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Sunderland | 0 | 0.78 |
 Leicester City | 2 | 3.00 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +8 Leicester about even · −8 Sunderland
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sunderland win 0, 1 ends level, Leicester win 9.
- 1 SUN 1 LEI 1
- 2 SUN 0 LEI 6
- 3 SUN 0 LEI 5
- 4 SUN 0 LEI 4
- 5 SUN 0 LEI 4
- 6 SUN 1 LEI 4
- 7 SUN 1 LEI 4
- 8 SUN 2 LEI 4
- 9 SUN 2 LEI 4
- 10 SUN 1 LEI 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sunderland win 4%, 8% end level, Leicester win 87%. The line is what actually happened: Leicester by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sunderland by 3+ | 0.3% |
| Sunderland by 2 | 0.7% |
| Sunderland by 1 | 3.3% |
| Draw | 8.4% |
| Leicester by 1 | 15.2% |
| Leicester by 2 | 19.3% |
| Leicester by 3+ | 52.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sunderland | 15 | 0 | 0.78 | −0.78 |
 Leicester | 16 | 2 | 3.00 | −1.00 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 65' | Jamie Vardy scored from a shot | 0.21 |
| 81' | Jack Rodwell didn’t score from a shot | 0.32 |
| 82' | José Leonardo Ulloa didn’t score from a shot | 0.31 |
| 89' | Jamie Vardy didn’t score from a shot | 0.40 |
| 92' | Daniel Amartey didn’t score from a shot | 0.41 |
| 94' | Jamie Vardy scored from a shot | 0.99 |
When it happened
Sunderland’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14' | Wes Morgan didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +6% SUN |
| 2 | 43' | Jamie Vardy didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% SUN |
| 3 | 44' | Riyad Mahrez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% SUN |
| 4 | 51' | Shinji Okazaki didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% SUN |
| 5 | 65' | The game turned hereJamie Vardy scored from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +30% LEI |
| 6 | 77' | Jermain Defoe didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% LEI |
| 7 | 79' | Jermain Defoe didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% LEI |
| 8 | 81' | Jack Rodwell didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 32% chance | +15% LEI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sunderland 1% · draw 3% · Leicester 96%
- Final margin
- Leicester by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Sunderland
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Leicester by 2.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Sunderland 4% · draw 8% · Leicester 87% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Leicester win 92% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 33 matches, 2015-16 · Sunderland · Leicester
More from matchday 33, 2015-16
- Southampton 3–1 Newcastle Apr 9, 2016 · replay 92% for Southampton
- Crystal Palace 1–0 Norwich Apr 9, 2016 · replay 62% for Crystal Palace
- Watford 1–1 Everton Apr 9, 2016 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Man City 2–1 West Brom Apr 9, 2016 · replay 68% for Man City
- Swansea 1–0 Chelsea Apr 9, 2016 · replay 65% for Swansea
- West Ham 3–3 Arsenal Apr 9, 2016 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Aston Villa 1–2 Bournemouth Apr 9, 2016 · replay 72% for Bournemouth
- Liverpool 4–1 Stoke Apr 10, 2016 · replay 88% for Liverpool
- Tottenham 3–0 Man United Apr 10, 2016 · replay 86% for Tottenham