Matchday 33 · Premier League 2015-16 · April 9, 2016
West Ham 3–3 Arsenal: who deserved to win?
West Ham and Arsenal drew 3–3. Replayed with the way both teams played, West Ham win 2 of 10, Arsenal 6, and 2 end level. Arsenal made the better chances: 1.8 expected goals to 1.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 West Ham United | 3 | 1.26 |
 Arsenal | 3 | 1.84 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +15 West Ham about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. West Ham win 2, 2 end level, Arsenal win 6.
- 1 WHU 3 ARS 2
- 2 WHU 4 ARS 2
- 3 WHU 1 ARS 1
- 4 WHU 0 ARS 0
- 5 WHU 1 ARS 5
- 6 WHU 0 ARS 3
- 7 WHU 0 ARS 2
- 8 WHU 0 ARS 1
- 9 WHU 0 ARS 1
- 10 WHU 2 ARS 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
West Ham win 25%, 21% end level, Arsenal win 54%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| West Ham by 3+ | 3.6% |
| West Ham by 2 | 7.0% |
| West Ham by 1 | 14.0% |
| Draw | 21.2% |
| Arsenal by 1 | 22.8% |
| Arsenal by 2 | 16.6% |
| Arsenal by 3+ | 14.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 West Ham | 17 | 3 | 1.26 | +1.74 |
 Arsenal | 11 | 3 | 1.84 | +1.16 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 17' | Mesut Özil scored from a shot | 0.28 |
| 34' | Alexis Alejandro Sánchez Sánchez scored from a shot | 0.33 |
| 43' | Andy Carroll scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 46' | Andy Carroll scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 51' | Andy Carroll scored from a shot | 0.09 |
| 69' | Laurent Koscielny scored from a shot | 0.52 |
When it happened
West Ham’s chance of winning
As low as 7% and as high as 91%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17' | Mesut Özil scored from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +19% ARS |
| 2 | 34' | Alexis Alejandro Sánchez Sánchez scored from a shotFinishing · 33% chance | +12% ARS |
| 3 | 43' | Andy Carroll scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +16% WHU |
| 4 | 46' | Andy Carroll scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +29% WHU |
| 5 | 51' | Andy Carroll scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +28% WHU |
| 6 | 69' | Laurent Koscielny scored from a shotFinishing · 52% chance | +18% ARS |
| 7 | 77' | Winston Reid didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +7% ARS |
| 8 | 88' | Emmanuel Emenike didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% ARS |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
West Ham 25% · draw 23% · Arsenal 51%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for West Ham
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arsenal by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- West Ham 25% · draw 21% · Arsenal 54% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 33, 2015-16
- Southampton 3–1 Newcastle Apr 9, 2016 · replay 92% for Southampton
- Crystal Palace 1–0 Norwich Apr 9, 2016 · replay 62% for Crystal Palace
- Watford 1–1 Everton Apr 9, 2016 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Man City 2–1 West Brom Apr 9, 2016 · replay 68% for Man City
- Swansea 1–0 Chelsea Apr 9, 2016 · replay 65% for Swansea
- Aston Villa 1–2 Bournemouth Apr 9, 2016 · replay 72% for Bournemouth
- Liverpool 4–1 Stoke Apr 10, 2016 · replay 88% for Liverpool
- Sunderland 0–2 Leicester Apr 10, 2016 · replay 92% for Leicester
- Tottenham 3–0 Man United Apr 10, 2016 · replay 86% for Tottenham