Matchday 33 · Premier League 2015-16 · April 9, 2016
Swansea 1–0 Chelsea: who deserved to win?
Swansea beat Chelsea 1–0, and the replays lean Swansea’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Chelsea, 2 end level. The chances were close to even (1.8 expected goals to 1.7).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Swansea City | 1 | 1.83 |
 Chelsea | 0 | 1.66 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +35 Swansea lucky · −35 Chelsea
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Swansea win 6, 2 end level, Chelsea win 2.
- 1 SWA 1 CHE 0
- 2 SWA 2 CHE 1
- 3 SWA 1 CHE 0
- 4 SWA 4 CHE 2
- 5 SWA 4 CHE 1
- 6 SWA 4 CHE 0
- 7 SWA 1 CHE 1
- 8 SWA 2 CHE 2
- 9 SWA 1 CHE 3
- 10 SWA 3 CHE 4
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Swansea win 55%, 20% end level, Chelsea win 25%. The line is what actually happened: Swansea by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Swansea by 3+ | 17.1% |
| Swansea by 2 | 17.3% |
| Swansea by 1 | 20.9% |
| Draw | 19.9% |
| Chelsea by 1 | 13.8% |
| Chelsea by 2 | 6.4% |
| Chelsea by 3+ | 4.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Swansea | 12 | 1 | 1.83 | −0.83 |
 Chelsea | 9 | 0 | 1.66 | −1.66 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 24' | Gylfi Þór Sigurðsson scored from a shot | 0.09 |
| 46' | Alexandre Rodrigues da Silva didn’t score from a shot | 0.31 |
| 52' | Alberto Paloschi didn’t score from a shot | 0.45 |
| 54' | Alexandre Rodrigues da Silva didn’t score from a shot | 0.74 |
| 75' | Jefferson Antonio Montero Vite didn’t score from a shot | 0.66 |
When it happened
Swansea’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17' | Àngel Rangel Zaragoza didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +5% CHE |
| 2 | 24' | Gylfi Þór Sigurðsson scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +23% SWA |
| 3 | 46' | Alexandre Rodrigues da Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +9% SWA |
| 4 | 52' | Alberto Paloschi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 45% chance | +5% CHE |
| 5 | 54' | Alexandre Rodrigues da Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 74% chance | +23% SWA |
| 6 | 71' | Ruben Loftus-Cheek didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% SWA |
| 7 | 75' | Jefferson Antonio Montero Vite didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 66% chance | +4% CHE |
| 8 | 85' | Radamel Falcao García Zárate didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +9% SWA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Swansea 42% · draw 28% · Chelsea 30%
- Final margin
- Swansea by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.6 for Swansea
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Swansea by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Swansea 55% · draw 20% · Chelsea 25% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Swansea win 65% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 33 matches, 2015-16 · Swansea · Chelsea
More from matchday 33, 2015-16
- Southampton 3–1 Newcastle Apr 9, 2016 · replay 92% for Southampton
- Crystal Palace 1–0 Norwich Apr 9, 2016 · replay 62% for Crystal Palace
- Watford 1–1 Everton Apr 9, 2016 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Man City 2–1 West Brom Apr 9, 2016 · replay 68% for Man City
- West Ham 3–3 Arsenal Apr 9, 2016 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Aston Villa 1–2 Bournemouth Apr 9, 2016 · replay 72% for Bournemouth
- Liverpool 4–1 Stoke Apr 10, 2016 · replay 88% for Liverpool
- Sunderland 0–2 Leicester Apr 10, 2016 · replay 92% for Leicester
- Tottenham 3–0 Man United Apr 10, 2016 · replay 86% for Tottenham