Matchday 33 · Premier League 2015-16 · April 9, 2016
Aston Villa 1–2 Bournemouth: who deserved to win?
Bournemouth beat Aston Villa 2–1, and the replays lean Bournemouth’s way: 6 wins in 10, 1 for Aston Villa, 3 end level. Bournemouth made the better chances: 1.0 expected goals to 0.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Aston Villa | 1 | 0.44 |
 AFC Bournemouth | 2 | 1.02 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +28 Bournemouth lucky · −28 Aston Villa
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Aston Villa win 1, 3 end level, Bournemouth win 6.
- 1 AVL 1 BOU 0
- 2 AVL 0 BOU 0
- 3 AVL 1 BOU 1
- 4 AVL 0 BOU 0
- 5 AVL 0 BOU 3
- 6 AVL 0 BOU 2
- 7 AVL 0 BOU 2
- 8 AVL 1 BOU 2
- 9 AVL 0 BOU 1
- 10 AVL 0 BOU 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Aston Villa win 12%, 31% end level, Bournemouth win 56%. The line is what actually happened: Bournemouth by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa by 3+ | 0.3% |
| Aston Villa by 2 | 1.7% |
| Aston Villa by 1 | 10.4% |
| Draw | 31.2% |
| Bournemouth by 1 | 30.4% |
| Bournemouth by 2 | 16.4% |
| Bournemouth by 3+ | 9.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Aston Villa | 7 | 1 | 0.44 | +0.56 |
 Bournemouth | 12 | 2 | 1.02 | +0.98 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 46' | Steve Cook scored from a shot | 0.17 |
| 73' | Joshua King scored from a shot | 0.25 |
| 84' | Jordan Ayew scored from a shot | 0.11 |
When it happened
Aston Villa’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Idrissa Gana Gueye didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +2% BOU |
| 2 | 4' | Lewis Grabban didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% AVL |
| 3 | 37' | Tommy Elphick didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% AVL |
| 4 | 39' | Joshua King didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% AVL |
| 5 | 46' | The game turned hereSteve Cook scored from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +27% BOU |
| 6 | 73' | Joshua King scored from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +7% BOU |
| 7 | 84' | Jordan Ayew scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% AVL |
| 8 | 90' | Rudy Gestede didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% BOU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Aston Villa 17% · draw 33% · Bournemouth 50%
- Final margin
- Bournemouth by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Bournemouth
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bournemouth by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Aston Villa 12% · draw 31% · Bournemouth 56% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Bournemouth win 72% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 33 matches, 2015-16 · Aston Villa · Bournemouth
More from matchday 33, 2015-16
- Southampton 3–1 Newcastle Apr 9, 2016 · replay 92% for Southampton
- Crystal Palace 1–0 Norwich Apr 9, 2016 · replay 62% for Crystal Palace
- Watford 1–1 Everton Apr 9, 2016 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Man City 2–1 West Brom Apr 9, 2016 · replay 68% for Man City
- Swansea 1–0 Chelsea Apr 9, 2016 · replay 65% for Swansea
- West Ham 3–3 Arsenal Apr 9, 2016 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Liverpool 4–1 Stoke Apr 10, 2016 · replay 88% for Liverpool
- Sunderland 0–2 Leicester Apr 10, 2016 · replay 92% for Leicester
- Tottenham 3–0 Man United Apr 10, 2016 · replay 86% for Tottenham