Matchday 33 · Premier League 2015-16 · April 10, 2016
Tottenham 3–0 Man United: who deserved to win?
Tottenham beat Man United 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Tottenham win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Tottenham made the better chances: 1.8 expected goals to 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Tottenham Hotspur | 3 | 1.81 |
 Manchester United | 0 | 0.51 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +14 Tottenham about even · −14 Man United
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Tottenham win 8, 1 ends level, Man United win 1.
- 1 TOT 2 MUN 1
- 2 TOT 1 MUN 0
- 3 TOT 2 MUN 1
- 4 TOT 2 MUN 0
- 5 TOT 4 MUN 2
- 6 TOT 3 MUN 0
- 7 TOT 3 MUN 0
- 8 TOT 5 MUN 0
- 9 TOT 2 MUN 2
- 10 TOT 0 MUN 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Tottenham win 79%, 14% end level, Man United win 7%. The line is what actually happened: Tottenham by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Tottenham by 3+ | 31.9% |
| Tottenham by 2 | 22.6% |
| Tottenham by 1 | 24.1% |
| Draw | 14.1% |
| Man United by 1 | 5.5% |
| Man United by 2 | 1.5% |
| Man United by 3+ | 0.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tottenham | 16 | 3 | 1.81 | +1.19 |
 Man United | 6 | 0 | 0.51 | −0.51 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 69' | Bamidele Alli scored from a shot | 0.46 |
| 73' | Toby Alderweireld scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 75' | Erik Lamela scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 91' | Mousa Sidi Yaya Dembélé didn’t score from a shot | 0.41 |
When it happened
Tottenham’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Jesse Lingard didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% TOT |
| 2 | 11' | Chris Smalling didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% TOT |
| 3 | 27' | Erik Lamela didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +5% MUN |
| 4 | 28' | Kyle Walker didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% MUN |
| 5 | 58' | Jesse Lingard didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% TOT |
| 6 | 61' | Anthony Martial didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +6% TOT |
| 7 | 69' | Bamidele Alli scored from a shotFinishing · 46% chance | +20% TOT |
| 8 | 73' | Toby Alderweireld scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +7% TOT |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Tottenham 92% · draw 7% · Man United 2%
- Final margin
- Tottenham by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.3 for Tottenham
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Tottenham by 1.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Tottenham 79% · draw 14% · Man United 7% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Tottenham win 86% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 33, 2015-16
- Southampton 3–1 Newcastle Apr 9, 2016 · replay 92% for Southampton
- Crystal Palace 1–0 Norwich Apr 9, 2016 · replay 62% for Crystal Palace
- Watford 1–1 Everton Apr 9, 2016 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Man City 2–1 West Brom Apr 9, 2016 · replay 68% for Man City
- Swansea 1–0 Chelsea Apr 9, 2016 · replay 65% for Swansea
- West Ham 3–3 Arsenal Apr 9, 2016 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Aston Villa 1–2 Bournemouth Apr 9, 2016 · replay 72% for Bournemouth
- Liverpool 4–1 Stoke Apr 10, 2016 · replay 88% for Liverpool
- Sunderland 0–2 Leicester Apr 10, 2016 · replay 92% for Leicester