Matchday 33 · Premier League 2015-16 · April 9, 2016
Watford 1–1 Everton: who deserved to win?
Watford and Everton drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Watford win 1 of 10, Everton 6, and 3 end level. Everton made the better chances: 1.4 expected goals to 0.6. An own goal helped Watford.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Watford | 1 | 0.55 |
 Everton | 1 | 1.41 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +21 Watford about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Watford win 1, 3 end level, Everton win 6.
- 1 WAT 2 EVE 1
- 2 WAT 1 EVE 1
- 3 WAT 0 EVE 0
- 4 WAT 1 EVE 1
- 5 WAT 0 EVE 3
- 6 WAT 1 EVE 3
- 7 WAT 0 EVE 2
- 8 WAT 0 EVE 1
- 9 WAT 0 EVE 1
- 10 WAT 1 EVE 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Watford win 15%, 28% end level, Everton win 57%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Watford by 3+ | 0.5% |
| Watford by 2 | 2.9% |
| Watford by 1 | 11.5% |
| Draw | 28.4% |
| Everton by 1 | 27.3% |
| Everton by 2 | 17.6% |
| Everton by 3+ | 11.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Watford | 13 | 0 | 0.55 | −0.55 |
 Everton | 12 | 1 | 1.41 | −0.41 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 45' | James McCarthy scored from a shot | 0.43 |
| 87' | Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shot | 0.40 |
When it happened
Watford’s chance of winning
As low as 23% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44' | José Holebas didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% EVE |
| 2 | 45' | James McCarthy scored from a shotFinishing · 43% chance | +18% EVE |
| 3 | 47' | Own goal by nan, for WatfordOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +31% WAT |
| 4 | 47' | Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% WAT |
| 5 | 87' | Kevin Mirallas didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 5% chance | +2% WAT |
| 6 | 87' | Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 40% chance | +19% WAT |
| 7 | 88' | Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +8% WAT |
| 8 | 93' | Odion Jude Ighalo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% EVE |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Watford 13% · draw 25% · Everton 62%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.8 for Watford
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Everton by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Watford 15% · draw 28% · Everton 57% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 33 matches, 2015-16 · Watford · Everton
More from matchday 33, 2015-16
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- Crystal Palace 1–0 Norwich Apr 9, 2016 · replay 62% for Crystal Palace
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- Swansea 1–0 Chelsea Apr 9, 2016 · replay 65% for Swansea
- West Ham 3–3 Arsenal Apr 9, 2016 · drawn; replay 21% draws
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- Liverpool 4–1 Stoke Apr 10, 2016 · replay 88% for Liverpool
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