luckadjusted
Euro Final · 2024

Matchday 2 · Euro 2020 · June 16, 2021

Finland 0–1 Russia: who deserved to win?

Russia beat Finland 1–0, and the replays lean Russia’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Finland, 3 end level. Russia made the better chances: 1.3 expected goals to 1.0.

Full time

GoalsxG
Finland 0 0.97
Russia 1 1.26

June 16, 2021 · Saint-Petersburg Stadium ( Gazprom Arena ) · Referee: Danny Desmond Makkelie

Luck index +36 Russia lucky · −36 Finland

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Finland win 2, 3 end level, Russia win 5.

  1. 1 FIN 2 RUS 1
  2. 2 FIN 2 RUS 0
  3. 3 FIN 0 RUS 0
  4. 4 FIN 1 RUS 1
  5. 5 FIN 0 RUS 0
  6. 6 FIN 0 RUS 3
  7. 7 FIN 1 RUS 3
  8. 8 FIN 0 RUS 1
  9. 9 FIN 0 RUS 1
  10. 10 FIN 0 RUS 1

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Finland win 23%, 26% end level, Russia win 51%. The line is what actually happened: Russia by 1.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Finland by 3+1.6%
Finland by 26.0%
Finland by 115.4%
Draw26.1%
Russia by 125.0%
Russia by 215.7%
Russia by 3+10.1%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Finland1100.96−0.96
Russia1411.26−0.26

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

The big chances, and every goal

MinuteChancexG
46'Aleksey Miranchuk scored from a shot0.06

When it happened

Finland’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Finland was ahead in it, below while Russia was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 9' Magomed Ozdoev didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance +6% FIN
2 19' Joel Pohjanpalo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 30% chance +8% RUS
3 29' Artem Dzyuba didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance +6% FIN
4 46' Aleksey Miranchuk scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance +29% RUS
5 48' Teemu Pukki didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance +6% RUS
6 49' Joel Pohjanpalo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance +2% RUS
7 65' Rifat Zhemaletdinov didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance +2% FIN
8 88' Paulus Arajuuri didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance +7% RUS

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Finland 26% · draw 29% · Russia 45%

Final margin
Russia by 1
Luck in goals
0.5 for Russia
Luck-adjusted margin
Russia by 0.5
Replay with same day's form
Finland 23% · draw 26% · Russia 51% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this match and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a chance goes in.

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Russia win 64% of replays (a draw counted as half).

All matchday 2 matches, 2020 · Finland · Russia

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