Matchday 2 · Euro 2020 · June 19, 2021
Hungary 1–1 France: who deserved to win?
Hungary and France drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Hungary win 1 of 10, France 7, and 2 end level. France made the better chances: 1.7 expected goals to 0.5.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +26 Hungary lucky for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Hungary win 1, 2 end level, France win 7.
- 1 HUN 1 FRA 0
- 2 HUN 0 FRA 0
- 3 HUN 0 FRA 0
- 4 HUN 0 FRA 4
- 5 HUN 0 FRA 3
- 6 HUN 0 FRA 2
- 7 HUN 1 FRA 3
- 8 HUN 0 FRA 1
- 9 HUN 0 FRA 1
- 10 HUN 0 FRA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Hungary win 12%, 23% end level, France win 65%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Hungary by 3+ | 0.4% |
| Hungary by 2 | 2.3% |
| Hungary by 1 | 9.3% |
| Draw | 23.1% |
| France by 1 | 28.3% |
| France by 2 | 20.4% |
| France by 3+ | 16.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hungary | 5 | 1 | 0.47 | +0.53 |
 France | 17 | 1 | 1.69 | −0.69 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 46' | Attila Fiola scored from a shot | 0.36 |
| 65' | Antoine Griezmann scored from a shot | 0.38 |
When it happened
Hungary’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16' | Kylian Mbappé Lottin didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% HUN |
| 2 | 20' | Kylian Mbappé Lottin didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +5% HUN |
| 3 | 30' | Karim Benzema didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +5% HUN |
| 4 | 46' | Attila Fiola scored from a shotFinishing · 36% chance | +20% HUN |
| 5 | 65' | Antoine Griezmann scored from a shotFinishing · 38% chance | +23% FRA |
| 6 | 68' | Kylian Mbappé Lottin didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +6% HUN |
| 7 | 81' | Kylian Mbappé Lottin didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +7% HUN |
| 8 | 94' | Raphaël Varane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +8% HUN |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Hungary 8% · draw 22% · France 70%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for Hungary
- Luck-adjusted margin
- France by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Hungary 12% · draw 23% · France 65% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 2, 2020
- Turkey 0–2 Wales Jun 16, 2021 · replay 84% for Wales
- Italy 3–0 Switzerland Jun 16, 2021 · replay 87% for Italy
- Finland 0–1 Russia Jun 16, 2021 · replay 64% for Russia
- Ukraine 2–1 North Macedonia Jun 17, 2021 · replay 84% for Ukraine
- Denmark 1–2 Belgium Jun 17, 2021 · replay 32% for Belgium
- Netherlands 2–0 Austria Jun 17, 2021 · replay 97% for Netherlands
- Sweden 1–0 Slovakia Jun 18, 2021 · replay 76% for Sweden
- Croatia 1–1 Czech Republic Jun 18, 2021 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- England 0–0 Scotland Jun 18, 2021 · drawn; replay 34% draws
- Portugal 2–4 Germany Jun 19, 2021 · replay 66% for Germany
- Spain 1–1 Poland Jun 19, 2021 · drawn; replay 12% draws