Matchday 2 · Euro 2020 · June 18, 2021
Croatia 1–1 Czech Republic: who deserved to win?
Croatia and Czech Republic drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Croatia win 2 of 10, Czech Republic 6, and 2 end level. Czech Republic made the better chances: 1.9 expected goals to 1.0.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Croatia | 1 | 0.99 |
 Czech Republic | 1 | 1.91 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +21 Croatia about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Croatia win 2, 2 end level, Czech Republic win 6.
- 1 CRO 2 CZE 1
- 2 CRO 3 CZE 1
- 3 CRO 2 CZE 2
- 4 CRO 2 CZE 2
- 5 CRO 1 CZE 5
- 6 CRO 1 CZE 4
- 7 CRO 0 CZE 2
- 8 CRO 2 CZE 4
- 9 CRO 0 CZE 1
- 10 CRO 0 CZE 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Croatia win 18%, 22% end level, Czech Republic win 60%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Croatia by 3+ | 1.6% |
| Croatia by 2 | 4.5% |
| Croatia by 1 | 12.2% |
| Draw | 21.9% |
| Czech Republic by 1 | 23.8% |
| Czech Republic by 2 | 18.1% |
| Czech Republic by 3+ | 17.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Croatia | 11 | 1 | 0.99 | +0.01 |
 Czech Republic | 11 (1 pen) | 1 | 1.91 | −0.91 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 17' | Patrik Schick didn’t score from a shot | 0.35 |
| 36' | Patrik Schick scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 46' | Ivan Perišić scored from a shot | 0.03 |
When it happened
Croatia’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17' | Patrik Schick didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 35% chance | +9% CRO |
| 2 | 36' | Patrik Schick scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +6% CZE |
| 3 | 38' | Ante Rebić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +8% CZE |
| 4 | 46' | Ivan Perišić scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +30% CRO |
| 5 | 56' | Jan Bořil didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +6% CRO |
| 6 | 71' | Nikola Vlašić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +9% CZE |
| 7 | 88' | Bruno Petković didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% CZE |
| 8 | 88' | Bruno Petković didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% CZE |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Croatia 15% · draw 23% · Czech Republic 62%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for Croatia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Czech Republic by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Croatia 18% · draw 22% · Czech Republic 60% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 2, 2020
- Turkey 0–2 Wales Jun 16, 2021 · replay 84% for Wales
- Italy 3–0 Switzerland Jun 16, 2021 · replay 87% for Italy
- Finland 0–1 Russia Jun 16, 2021 · replay 64% for Russia
- Ukraine 2–1 North Macedonia Jun 17, 2021 · replay 84% for Ukraine
- Denmark 1–2 Belgium Jun 17, 2021 · replay 32% for Belgium
- Netherlands 2–0 Austria Jun 17, 2021 · replay 97% for Netherlands
- Sweden 1–0 Slovakia Jun 18, 2021 · replay 76% for Sweden
- England 0–0 Scotland Jun 18, 2021 · drawn; replay 34% draws
- Hungary 1–1 France Jun 19, 2021 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Portugal 2–4 Germany Jun 19, 2021 · replay 66% for Germany
- Spain 1–1 Poland Jun 19, 2021 · drawn; replay 12% draws