Matchday 2 · Euro 2020 · June 19, 2021
Spain 1–1 Poland: who deserved to win?
Spain and Poland drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Spain win 8 of 10, Poland 1, and 1 end level. Spain made the better chances: 2.6 expected goals to 0.6.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −39 Spain unlucky for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Spain win 8, 1 ends level, Poland win 1.
- 1 ESP 1 POL 0
- 2 ESP 1 POL 0
- 3 ESP 4 POL 2
- 4 ESP 3 POL 1
- 5 ESP 3 POL 0
- 6 ESP 3 POL 0
- 7 ESP 4 POL 0
- 8 ESP 5 POL 0
- 9 ESP 1 POL 1
- 10 ESP 0 POL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Spain win 83%, 12% end level, Poland win 5%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Spain by 3+ | 41.0% |
| Spain by 2 | 22.7% |
| Spain by 1 | 19.8% |
| Draw | 11.8% |
| Poland by 1 | 3.4% |
| Poland by 2 | 1.1% |
| Poland by 3+ | 0.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Spain | 12 (1 pen) | 1 | 2.61 | −1.61 |
 Poland | 5 | 1 | 0.55 | +0.45 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 24' | Álvaro Borja Morata Martín scored from a shot | 0.58 |
| 53' | Robert Lewandowski scored from a shot | 0.18 |
| 57' | Gerard Moreno Balaguero didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 57' | Álvaro Borja Morata Martín didn’t score from a shot | 0.34 |
| 83' | Álvaro Borja Morata Martín didn’t score from a shot | 0.48 |
When it happened
Spain’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24' | Álvaro Borja Morata Martín scored from a shotFinishing · 58% chance | +11% ESP |
| 2 | 34' | Karol Świderski didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +6% ESP |
| 3 | 42' | Robert Lewandowski didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% ESP |
| 4 | 53' | Robert Lewandowski scored from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +27% POL |
| 5 | 57' | Gerard Moreno Balaguero didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +27% POL |
| 6 | 57' | Álvaro Borja Morata Martín didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 34% chance | +12% POL |
| 7 | 80' | Rodrigo Hernández Cascante didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% POL |
| 8 | 83' | Álvaro Borja Morata Martín didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 48% chance | +22% POL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Spain 87% · draw 10% · Poland 3%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 1.5 for Poland
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Spain by 1.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Spain 83% · draw 12% · Poland 5% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 2, 2020
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- Ukraine 2–1 North Macedonia Jun 17, 2021 · replay 84% for Ukraine
- Denmark 1–2 Belgium Jun 17, 2021 · replay 32% for Belgium
- Netherlands 2–0 Austria Jun 17, 2021 · replay 97% for Netherlands
- Sweden 1–0 Slovakia Jun 18, 2021 · replay 76% for Sweden
- Croatia 1–1 Czech Republic Jun 18, 2021 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- England 0–0 Scotland Jun 18, 2021 · drawn; replay 34% draws
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- Portugal 2–4 Germany Jun 19, 2021 · replay 66% for Germany