Matchday 2 · Euro 2020 · June 17, 2021
Netherlands 2–0 Austria: who deserved to win?
Netherlands beat Austria 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Netherlands win 10 of 10. Netherlands made the better chances: 3.3 expected goals to 0.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Netherlands | 2 | 3.34 |
 Austria | 0 | 0.40 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +3 Netherlands about even · −3 Austria
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Netherlands win 10, 0 end level, Austria win 0.
- 1 NED 1 AUT 0
- 2 NED 2 AUT 0
- 3 NED 2 AUT 0
- 4 NED 3 AUT 0
- 5 NED 3 AUT 0
- 6 NED 4 AUT 0
- 7 NED 5 AUT 1
- 8 NED 5 AUT 0
- 9 NED 6 AUT 0
- 10 NED 7 AUT 0
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Netherlands win 95%, 4% end level, Austria win 1%. The line is what actually happened: Netherlands by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Netherlands by 3+ | 69.4% |
| Netherlands by 2 | 15.7% |
| Netherlands by 1 | 10.1% |
| Draw | 3.9% |
| Austria by 1 | 0.9% |
| Austria by 2 | 0.1% |
| Austria by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Netherlands | 14 (1 pen) | 2 | 3.34 | −1.34 |
 Austria | 9 | 0 | 0.40 | −0.40 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 10' | Memphis Depay scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 39' | Memphis Depay didn’t score from a shot | 0.49 |
| 60' | Matthijs de Ligt didn’t score from a shot | 0.40 |
| 66' | Denzel Dumfries scored from a shot | 0.79 |
When it happened
Netherlands’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10' | Memphis Depay scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +5% NED |
| 2 | 27' | Christoph Baumgartner didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% NED |
| 3 | 39' | Memphis Depay didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 49% chance | +7% AUT |
| 4 | 40' | Georginio Wijnaldum didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +3% AUT |
| 5 | 43' | Memphis Depay didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +1% AUT |
| 6 | 60' | Stefan de Vrij didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +3% AUT |
| 7 | 60' | Matthijs de Ligt didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 40% chance | +5% AUT |
| 8 | 66' | Denzel Dumfries scored from a shotFinishing · 79% chance | +2% NED |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Netherlands 98% · draw 1% · Austria 0%
- Final margin
- Netherlands by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for Austria
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Netherlands by 2.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Netherlands 95% · draw 4% · Austria 1% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Netherlands win 97% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 2, 2020
- Turkey 0–2 Wales Jun 16, 2021 · replay 84% for Wales
- Italy 3–0 Switzerland Jun 16, 2021 · replay 87% for Italy
- Finland 0–1 Russia Jun 16, 2021 · replay 64% for Russia
- Ukraine 2–1 North Macedonia Jun 17, 2021 · replay 84% for Ukraine
- Denmark 1–2 Belgium Jun 17, 2021 · replay 32% for Belgium
- Sweden 1–0 Slovakia Jun 18, 2021 · replay 76% for Sweden
- Croatia 1–1 Czech Republic Jun 18, 2021 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- England 0–0 Scotland Jun 18, 2021 · drawn; replay 34% draws
- Hungary 1–1 France Jun 19, 2021 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Portugal 2–4 Germany Jun 19, 2021 · replay 66% for Germany
- Spain 1–1 Poland Jun 19, 2021 · drawn; replay 12% draws