Matchday 2 · Euro 2020 · June 16, 2021
Italy 3–0 Switzerland: who deserved to win?
Italy beat Switzerland 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Italy win 8 of 10, 2 end level. Italy made the better chances: 1.7 expected goals to 0.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Italy | 3 | 1.71 |
 Switzerland | 0 | 0.33 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +13 Italy about even · −13 Switzerland
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Italy win 8, 2 end level, Switzerland win 0.
- 1 ITA 1 SUI 0
- 2 ITA 1 SUI 0
- 3 ITA 2 SUI 1
- 4 ITA 2 SUI 0
- 5 ITA 2 SUI 0
- 6 ITA 3 SUI 0
- 7 ITA 3 SUI 0
- 8 ITA 5 SUI 0
- 9 ITA 1 SUI 1
- 10 ITA 0 SUI 0
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Italy win 79%, 17% end level, Switzerland win 5%. The line is what actually happened: Italy by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Italy by 3+ | 27.6% |
| Italy by 2 | 23.5% |
| Italy by 1 | 27.4% |
| Draw | 16.9% |
| Switzerland by 1 | 4.1% |
| Switzerland by 2 | 0.4% |
| Switzerland by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Italy | 13 | 3 | 1.71 | +1.29 |
 Switzerland | 6 | 0 | 0.33 | −0.33 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 25' | Manuel Locatelli scored from a shot | 0.74 |
| 51' | Manuel Locatelli scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 88' | Ciro Immobile scored from a shot | 0.04 |
When it happened
Italy’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9' | Ciro Immobile didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +5% SUI |
| 2 | 11' | Domenico Berardi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% SUI |
| 3 | 25' | Manuel Locatelli scored from a shotFinishing · 74% chance | +7% ITA |
| 4 | 36' | Leonardo Spinazzola didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +3% SUI |
| 5 | 45' | Nico Elvedi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% ITA |
| 6 | 51' | Manuel Locatelli scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +13% ITA |
| 7 | 60' | Xherdan Shaqiri didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +1% ITA |
| 8 | 63' | Steven Zuber didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +1% ITA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Italy 95% · draw 4% · Switzerland 1%
- Final margin
- Italy by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.2 for Italy
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Italy by 1.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Italy 79% · draw 17% · Switzerland 5% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Italy win 87% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 2, 2020
- Turkey 0–2 Wales Jun 16, 2021 · replay 84% for Wales
- Finland 0–1 Russia Jun 16, 2021 · replay 64% for Russia
- Ukraine 2–1 North Macedonia Jun 17, 2021 · replay 84% for Ukraine
- Denmark 1–2 Belgium Jun 17, 2021 · replay 32% for Belgium
- Netherlands 2–0 Austria Jun 17, 2021 · replay 97% for Netherlands
- Sweden 1–0 Slovakia Jun 18, 2021 · replay 76% for Sweden
- Croatia 1–1 Czech Republic Jun 18, 2021 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- England 0–0 Scotland Jun 18, 2021 · drawn; replay 34% draws
- Hungary 1–1 France Jun 19, 2021 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Portugal 2–4 Germany Jun 19, 2021 · replay 66% for Germany
- Spain 1–1 Poland Jun 19, 2021 · drawn; replay 12% draws