Matchday 2 · Euro 2020 · June 18, 2021
Sweden 1–0 Slovakia: who deserved to win?
Sweden beat Slovakia 1–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Sweden win 6 of 10, 2 end level. Sweden made the better chances: 1.6 expected goals to 0.6.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +24 Sweden about even · −24 Slovakia
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sweden win 6, 2 end level, Slovakia win 2.
- 1 SWE 1 SVK 0
- 2 SWE 1 SVK 0
- 3 SWE 2 SVK 1
- 4 SWE 3 SVK 1
- 5 SWE 3 SVK 1
- 6 SWE 3 SVK 0
- 7 SWE 0 SVK 0
- 8 SWE 0 SVK 0
- 9 SWE 1 SVK 2
- 10 SWE 1 SVK 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sweden win 65%, 23% end level, Slovakia win 12%. The line is what actually happened: Sweden by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sweden by 3+ | 17.1% |
| Sweden by 2 | 19.7% |
| Sweden by 1 | 27.8% |
| Draw | 22.9% |
| Slovakia by 1 | 9.9% |
| Slovakia by 2 | 2.1% |
| Slovakia by 3+ | 0.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sweden | 13 (1 pen) | 1 | 1.58 | −0.58 |
 Slovakia | 10 | 0 | 0.55 | −0.55 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 76' | Emil Peter Forsberg scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Sweden’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Juraj Kucka didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% SWE |
| 2 | 58' | Ludwig Augustinsson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% SVK |
| 3 | 59' | Marcus Andreas Danielsson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +6% SVK |
| 4 | 66' | Alexander Isak didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% SVK |
| 5 | 76' | Emil Peter Forsberg scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +9% SWE |
| 6 | 86' | Dávid Hancko didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% SWE |
| 7 | 86' | Dávid Hancko didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +5% SWE |
| 8 | 93' | Martin Koscelník didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% SWE |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sweden 68% · draw 23% · Slovakia 9%
- Final margin
- Sweden by 1
- Luck in goals
- none
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Sweden by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Sweden 65% · draw 23% · Slovakia 12% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Sweden win 76% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 2, 2020
- Turkey 0–2 Wales Jun 16, 2021 · replay 84% for Wales
- Italy 3–0 Switzerland Jun 16, 2021 · replay 87% for Italy
- Finland 0–1 Russia Jun 16, 2021 · replay 64% for Russia
- Ukraine 2–1 North Macedonia Jun 17, 2021 · replay 84% for Ukraine
- Denmark 1–2 Belgium Jun 17, 2021 · replay 32% for Belgium
- Netherlands 2–0 Austria Jun 17, 2021 · replay 97% for Netherlands
- Croatia 1–1 Czech Republic Jun 18, 2021 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- England 0–0 Scotland Jun 18, 2021 · drawn; replay 34% draws
- Hungary 1–1 France Jun 19, 2021 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Portugal 2–4 Germany Jun 19, 2021 · replay 66% for Germany
- Spain 1–1 Poland Jun 19, 2021 · drawn; replay 12% draws