Matchday 2 · Euro 2020 · June 17, 2021
Denmark 1–2 Belgium: who deserved to win?
Belgium beat Denmark 2–1, but the replays lean toward Denmark: 6 wins in 10 to Belgium’s 2, 2 end level. Denmark made the better chances: 1.6 expected goals to 1.1.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +68 Belgium very lucky · −68 Denmark
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Denmark win 6, 2 end level, Belgium win 2.
- 1 DEN 1 BEL 0
- 2 DEN 3 BEL 2
- 3 DEN 2 BEL 1
- 4 DEN 2 BEL 0
- 5 DEN 3 BEL 0
- 6 DEN 3 BEL 0
- 7 DEN 2 BEL 2
- 8 DEN 1 BEL 1
- 9 DEN 0 BEL 2
- 10 DEN 2 BEL 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Denmark win 56%, 24% end level, Belgium win 20%. The line is what actually happened: Belgium by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Denmark by 3+ | 13.5% |
| Denmark by 2 | 17.3% |
| Denmark by 1 | 25.6% |
| Draw | 23.5% |
| Belgium by 1 | 12.5% |
| Belgium by 2 | 5.6% |
| Belgium by 3+ | 1.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Denmark | 21 | 1 | 1.62 | −0.62 |
 Belgium | 6 | 2 | 1.05 | +0.95 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 1' | Yussuf Yurary Poulsen scored from a shot | 0.16 |
| 54' | Thorgan Hazard scored from a shot | 0.64 |
| 69' | Kevin De Bruyne scored from a shot | 0.08 |
When it happened
Denmark’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 83%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1' | Yussuf Yurary Poulsen scored from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +20% DEN |
| 2 | 3' | Dries Mertens didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +3% DEN |
| 3 | 54' | Thorgan Hazard scored from a shotFinishing · 64% chance | +12% BEL |
| 4 | 69' | Kevin De Bruyne scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +36% BEL |
| 5 | 74' | Martin Braithwaite Christensen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% BEL |
| 6 | 75' | Martin Braithwaite Christensen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +5% BEL |
| 7 | 86' | Martin Braithwaite Christensen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +6% BEL |
| 8 | 88' | Andreas Evald Cornelius didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% BEL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Denmark 50% · draw 27% · Belgium 23%
- Final margin
- Belgium by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.2 for Belgium
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Denmark by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Denmark 56% · draw 24% · Belgium 20% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Belgium win 32% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 2, 2020
- Turkey 0–2 Wales Jun 16, 2021 · replay 84% for Wales
- Italy 3–0 Switzerland Jun 16, 2021 · replay 87% for Italy
- Finland 0–1 Russia Jun 16, 2021 · replay 64% for Russia
- Ukraine 2–1 North Macedonia Jun 17, 2021 · replay 84% for Ukraine
- Netherlands 2–0 Austria Jun 17, 2021 · replay 97% for Netherlands
- Sweden 1–0 Slovakia Jun 18, 2021 · replay 76% for Sweden
- Croatia 1–1 Czech Republic Jun 18, 2021 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- England 0–0 Scotland Jun 18, 2021 · drawn; replay 34% draws
- Hungary 1–1 France Jun 19, 2021 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Portugal 2–4 Germany Jun 19, 2021 · replay 66% for Germany
- Spain 1–1 Poland Jun 19, 2021 · drawn; replay 12% draws