Matchday 2 · Euro 2020 · June 19, 2021
Portugal 2–4 Germany: who deserved to win?
Germany beat Portugal 4–2, and the replays lean Germany’s way: 5 wins in 10, 3 for Portugal, 2 end level. The chances were close to even (1.9 expected goals to 2.1). An own goal helped Germany.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +34 Germany lucky · −34 Portugal
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Portugal win 3, 2 end level, Germany win 5.
- 1 POR 1 GER 0
- 2 POR 2 GER 1
- 3 POR 4 GER 1
- 4 POR 1 GER 1
- 5 POR 1 GER 1
- 6 POR 0 GER 4
- 7 POR 1 GER 4
- 8 POR 2 GER 4
- 9 POR 1 GER 2
- 10 POR 2 GER 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Portugal win 26%, 18% end level, Germany win 57%. The line is what actually happened: Germany by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Portugal by 3+ | 4.7% |
| Portugal by 2 | 7.3% |
| Portugal by 1 | 13.6% |
| Draw | 17.8% |
| Germany by 1 | 19.9% |
| Germany by 2 | 15.8% |
| Germany by 3+ | 20.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Portugal | 7 | 2 | 1.94 | +0.06 |
 Germany | 13 | 2 | 2.13 | −0.13 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 14' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a shot | 0.93 |
| 38' | Kai Havertz didn’t score from a shot | 0.49 |
| 50' | Kai Havertz scored from a shot | 0.72 |
| 59' | Robin Gosens scored from a shot | 0.38 |
| 66' | Diogo José Teixeira da Silva scored from a shot | 0.81 |
When it happened
Portugal’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 78%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11' | Toni Kroos didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% POR |
| 2 | 14' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a shotFinishing · 93% chance | +2% POR |
| 3 | 27' | Diogo José Teixeira da Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +1% GER |
| 4 | 34' | The game turned hereOwn goal by nan, for GermanyOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +27% GER |
| 5 | 38' | Kai Havertz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 49% chance | +14% POR |
| 6 | 38' | Own goal by nan, for GermanyOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +28% GER |
| 7 | 50' | Kai Havertz scored from a shotFinishing · 72% chance | +4% GER |
| 8 | 59' | Robin Gosens scored from a shotFinishing · 38% chance | +2% GER |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Portugal 31% · draw 30% · Germany 39%
- Final margin
- Germany by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.8 for Germany
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Germany by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Portugal 26% · draw 18% · Germany 57% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Germany win 66% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 2, 2020
- Turkey 0–2 Wales Jun 16, 2021 · replay 84% for Wales
- Italy 3–0 Switzerland Jun 16, 2021 · replay 87% for Italy
- Finland 0–1 Russia Jun 16, 2021 · replay 64% for Russia
- Ukraine 2–1 North Macedonia Jun 17, 2021 · replay 84% for Ukraine
- Denmark 1–2 Belgium Jun 17, 2021 · replay 32% for Belgium
- Netherlands 2–0 Austria Jun 17, 2021 · replay 97% for Netherlands
- Sweden 1–0 Slovakia Jun 18, 2021 · replay 76% for Sweden
- Croatia 1–1 Czech Republic Jun 18, 2021 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- England 0–0 Scotland Jun 18, 2021 · drawn; replay 34% draws
- Hungary 1–1 France Jun 19, 2021 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Spain 1–1 Poland Jun 19, 2021 · drawn; replay 12% draws