luckadjusted
Euro Final · 2024

Matchday 2 · Euro 2020 · June 18, 2021

England 0–0 Scotland: who deserved to win?

England and Scotland drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, England win 4 of 10, Scotland 3, and 3 end level. The chances were close to even (0.8 expected goals to 0.7).

Full time

GoalsxG
England 0 0.85
Scotland 0 0.74

June 18, 2021 · Wembley Stadium · Referee: Antonio Miguel Mateu Lahoz

Luck index −4 England about even for the draw

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. England win 4, 3 end level, Scotland win 3.

  1. 1 ENG 1 SCO 0
  2. 2 ENG 2 SCO 1
  3. 3 ENG 1 SCO 0
  4. 4 ENG 2 SCO 0
  5. 5 ENG 1 SCO 1
  6. 6 ENG 0 SCO 0
  7. 7 ENG 0 SCO 0
  8. 8 ENG 0 SCO 2
  9. 9 ENG 1 SCO 2
  10. 10 ENG 0 SCO 1

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

England win 37%, 34% end level, Scotland win 29%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
England by 3+3.4%
England by 29.9%
England by 123.5%
Draw33.9%
Scotland by 119.7%
Scotland by 27.3%
Scotland by 3+2.3%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
England900.85−0.85
Scotland1100.74−0.74

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

When it happened

England’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while England was ahead in it, below while Scotland was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 3' Che Adams didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance +3% ENG
2 10' John Stones didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance +6% SCO
3 12' Mason Mount didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance +4% SCO
4 28' Harry Kane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance +5% SCO
5 29' Che Adams didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance +3% ENG
6 56' Che Adams didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance +4% ENG
7 61' Grant Campbell Hanley didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance +5% ENG
8 61' Lyndon Dykes didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance +3% ENG

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

England 35% · draw 35% · Scotland 30%

Final margin
even
Luck in goals
0.1 for Scotland
Luck-adjusted margin
England by 0.1
Replay with same day's form
England 37% · draw 34% · Scotland 29% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).

All matchday 2 matches, 2020 · England · Scotland

More from matchday 2, 2020

Every match of matchday 2, 2020