Matchday 2 · Euro 2020 · June 17, 2021
Ukraine 2–1 North Macedonia: who deserved to win?
Ukraine beat North Macedonia 2–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Ukraine win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Ukraine made the better chances: 3.2 expected goals to 2.0.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Ukraine | 2 | 3.24 |
 North Macedonia | 1 | 1.98 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +16 Ukraine about even · −16 North Macedonia
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Ukraine win 8, 1 ends level, North Macedonia win 1.
- 1 UKR 2 MKD 1
- 2 UKR 2 MKD 1
- 3 UKR 3 MKD 1
- 4 UKR 4 MKD 1
- 5 UKR 4 MKD 1
- 6 UKR 4 MKD 0
- 7 UKR 6 MKD 1
- 8 UKR 6 MKD 0
- 9 UKR 1 MKD 1
- 10 UKR 1 MKD 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Ukraine win 78%, 11% end level, North Macedonia win 10%. The line is what actually happened: Ukraine by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Ukraine by 3+ | 44.4% |
| Ukraine by 2 | 18.7% |
| Ukraine by 1 | 15.3% |
| Draw | 11.5% |
| North Macedonia by 1 | 6.3% |
| North Macedonia by 2 | 2.4% |
| North Macedonia by 3+ | 1.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ukraine | 17 (1 pen) | 2 | 3.24 | −1.24 |
 North Macedonia | 13 (1 pen) | 1 | 1.98 | −0.98 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 28' | Andriy Yarmolenko scored from a shot | 0.62 |
| 33' | Roman Yaremchuk scored from a shot | 0.17 |
| 56' | Ezgjan Alioski didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 56' | Ezgjan Alioski scored from a shot | 0.68 |
| 83' | Ruslan Malinovskiy didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Ukraine’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8' | Andriy Yarmolenko didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +7% MKD |
| 2 | 15' | Eljif Elmas didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +3% UKR |
| 3 | 22' | Andriy Yarmolenko didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +5% MKD |
| 4 | 27' | Andriy Yarmolenko didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +8% MKD |
| 5 | 28' | Andriy Yarmolenko scored from a shotFinishing · 62% chance | +10% UKR |
| 6 | 33' | Roman Yaremchuk scored from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +13% UKR |
| 7 | 56' | Ezgjan Alioski didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +10% UKR |
| 8 | 56' | Ezgjan Alioski scored from a shotFinishing · 68% chance | +4% MKD |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Ukraine 67% · draw 18% · North Macedonia 15%
- Final margin
- Ukraine by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for North Macedonia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ukraine by 1.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Ukraine 78% · draw 11% · North Macedonia 10% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Ukraine win 84% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 2, 2020
- Turkey 0–2 Wales Jun 16, 2021 · replay 84% for Wales
- Italy 3–0 Switzerland Jun 16, 2021 · replay 87% for Italy
- Finland 0–1 Russia Jun 16, 2021 · replay 64% for Russia
- Denmark 1–2 Belgium Jun 17, 2021 · replay 32% for Belgium
- Netherlands 2–0 Austria Jun 17, 2021 · replay 97% for Netherlands
- Sweden 1–0 Slovakia Jun 18, 2021 · replay 76% for Sweden
- Croatia 1–1 Czech Republic Jun 18, 2021 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- England 0–0 Scotland Jun 18, 2021 · drawn; replay 34% draws
- Hungary 1–1 France Jun 19, 2021 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Portugal 2–4 Germany Jun 19, 2021 · replay 66% for Germany
- Spain 1–1 Poland Jun 19, 2021 · drawn; replay 12% draws