Matchday 2 · Euro 2020 · June 16, 2021
Turkey 0–2 Wales: who deserved to win?
Wales beat Turkey 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Wales win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Wales made the better chances: 2.9 expected goals to 1.3.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +16 Wales about even · −16 Turkey
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Turkey win 1, 1 ends level, Wales win 8.
- 1 TUR 2 WAL 1
- 2 TUR 1 WAL 1
- 3 TUR 0 WAL 6
- 4 TUR 1 WAL 5
- 5 TUR 1 WAL 5
- 6 TUR 0 WAL 3
- 7 TUR 1 WAL 3
- 8 TUR 0 WAL 2
- 9 TUR 1 WAL 2
- 10 TUR 0 WAL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Turkey win 9%, 13% end level, Wales win 78%. The line is what actually happened: Wales by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Turkey by 3+ | 1.1% |
| Turkey by 2 | 1.8% |
| Turkey by 1 | 6.5% |
| Draw | 12.9% |
| Wales by 1 | 17.8% |
| Wales by 2 | 19.3% |
| Wales by 3+ | 40.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Turkey | 18 | 0 | 1.31 | −1.31 |
 Wales | 16 (1 pen) | 2 | 2.87 | −0.87 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 23' | Aaron Ramsey didn’t score from a shot | 0.38 |
| 41' | Aaron Ramsey scored from a shot | 0.43 |
| 60' | Gareth Frank Bale didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 94' | Connor Roberts scored from a shot | 0.16 |
When it happened
Turkey’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5' | Aaron Ramsey didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +6% TUR |
| 2 | 23' | Aaron Ramsey didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 38% chance | +10% TUR |
| 3 | 41' | Aaron Ramsey scored from a shotFinishing · 43% chance | +17% WAL |
| 4 | 46' | Cengiz Ünder didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +4% WAL |
| 5 | 53' | Burak Yılmaz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +9% WAL |
| 6 | 60' | Gareth Frank Bale didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +9% TUR |
| 7 | 83' | Burak Yılmaz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +6% WAL |
| 8 | 86' | Merih Demiral didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% WAL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Turkey 5% · draw 7% · Wales 88%
- Final margin
- Wales by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Wales
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Wales by 1.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Turkey 9% · draw 13% · Wales 78% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Wales win 84% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 2, 2020
- Italy 3–0 Switzerland Jun 16, 2021 · replay 87% for Italy
- Finland 0–1 Russia Jun 16, 2021 · replay 64% for Russia
- Ukraine 2–1 North Macedonia Jun 17, 2021 · replay 84% for Ukraine
- Denmark 1–2 Belgium Jun 17, 2021 · replay 32% for Belgium
- Netherlands 2–0 Austria Jun 17, 2021 · replay 97% for Netherlands
- Sweden 1–0 Slovakia Jun 18, 2021 · replay 76% for Sweden
- Croatia 1–1 Czech Republic Jun 18, 2021 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- England 0–0 Scotland Jun 18, 2021 · drawn; replay 34% draws
- Hungary 1–1 France Jun 19, 2021 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Portugal 2–4 Germany Jun 19, 2021 · replay 66% for Germany
- Spain 1–1 Poland Jun 19, 2021 · drawn; replay 12% draws