Matchday 1 · Euro 2024 · June 14, 2024
Germany 5–1 Scotland: who deserved to win?
Germany beat Scotland 5–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Germany win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Germany made the better chances: 1.8 expected goals to 0.1. An own goal helped Scotland.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 Germany about even · −4 Scotland
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Germany win 9, 1 ends level, Scotland win 0.
- 1 GER 1 SCO 0
- 2 GER 1 SCO 0
- 3 GER 2 SCO 0
- 4 GER 2 SCO 0
- 5 GER 3 SCO 0
- 6 GER 3 SCO 0
- 7 GER 4 SCO 0
- 8 GER 4 SCO 0
- 9 GER 6 SCO 0
- 10 GER 1 SCO 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Germany win 93%, 6% end level, Scotland win 1%. The line is what actually happened: Germany by 4.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Germany by 3+ | 49.2% |
| Germany by 2 | 25.6% |
| Germany by 1 | 18.3% |
| Draw | 6.2% |
| Scotland by 1 | 0.7% |
| Scotland by 2 | 0.1% |
| Scotland by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Germany | 20 (1 pen) | 5 | 1.84 | +3.16 |
 Scotland | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | −0.06 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 9' | Florian Wirtz scored from a shot | 0.06 |
| 18' | Jamal Musiala scored from a shot | 0.09 |
| 45' | Kai Havertz scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 67' | Niclas Füllkrug scored from a shot | 0.11 |
| 92' | Emre Can scored from a shot | 0.05 |
When it happened
Germany’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9' | Florian Wirtz scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +23% GER |
| 2 | 18' | Jamal Musiala scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +14% GER |
| 3 | 27' | Kai Havertz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +0% SCO |
| 4 | 41' | İlkay Gündoğan didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +0% SCO |
| 5 | 45' | Kai Havertz scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +1% GER |
| 6 | 57' | Florian Wirtz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +0% SCO |
| 7 | 58' | İlkay Gündoğan didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +0% SCO |
| 8 | 67' | Niclas Füllkrug scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +0% GER |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Germany 99% · draw 0% · Scotland 0%
- Final margin
- Germany by 4
- Luck in goals
- 1.5 for Germany
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Germany by 2.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Germany 93% · draw 6% · Scotland 1% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Germany win 96% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 1, 2024
- Hungary 1–3 Switzerland Jun 15, 2024 · replay 82% for Switzerland
- Spain 3–0 Croatia Jun 15, 2024 · replay 58% for Spain
- Italy 2–1 Albania Jun 15, 2024 · replay 80% for Italy
- Serbia 0–1 England Jun 16, 2024 · replay 63% for England
- Poland 1–2 Netherlands Jun 16, 2024 · replay 59% for Netherlands
- Slovenia 1–1 Denmark Jun 16, 2024 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Romania 3–0 Ukraine Jun 17, 2024 · replay 79% for Romania
- Austria 0–1 France Jun 17, 2024 · replay 81% for France
- Belgium 0–1 Slovakia Jun 17, 2024 · replay 33% for Slovakia
- Portugal 2–1 Czech Republic Jun 18, 2024 · replay 84% for Portugal
- Turkey 3–1 Georgia Jun 18, 2024 · replay 74% for Turkey