Matchday 1 · Euro 2024 · June 16, 2024
Poland 1–2 Netherlands: who deserved to win?
Netherlands beat Poland 2–1, and the replays lean Netherlands’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Poland, 3 end level. Netherlands made the better chances: 1.3 expected goals to 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Poland | 1 | 0.91 |
 Netherlands | 2 | 1.31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +41 Netherlands lucky · −41 Poland
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Poland win 3, 3 end level, Netherlands win 4.
- 1 POL 1 NED 0
- 2 POL 1 NED 0
- 3 POL 2 NED 0
- 4 POL 0 NED 0
- 5 POL 1 NED 1
- 6 POL 1 NED 1
- 7 POL 0 NED 3
- 8 POL 0 NED 2
- 9 POL 0 NED 1
- 10 POL 0 NED 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Poland win 27%, 28% end level, Netherlands win 46%. The line is what actually happened: Netherlands by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Poland by 3+ | 3.0% |
| Poland by 2 | 6.8% |
| Poland by 1 | 17.0% |
| Draw | 27.6% |
| Netherlands by 1 | 25.6% |
| Netherlands by 2 | 13.0% |
| Netherlands by 3+ | 7.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Poland | 12 | 1 | 0.91 | +0.09 |
 Netherlands | 21 | 2 | 1.31 | +0.69 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 15' | Adam Buksa scored from a shot | 0.09 |
| 28' | Cody Mathès Gakpo scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 82' | Wout Weghorst scored from a shot | 0.09 |
When it happened
Poland’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 77%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15' | Adam Buksa scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +23% POL |
| 2 | 28' | The game turned hereCody Mathès Gakpo scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +26% NED |
| 3 | 41' | Cody Mathès Gakpo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% POL |
| 4 | 45' | Memphis Depay didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +5% POL |
| 5 | 62' | Jakub Moder didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +6% NED |
| 6 | 79' | Jakub Moder didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +13% NED |
| 7 | 82' | Wout Weghorst scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +41% NED |
| 8 | 88' | Karol Świderski didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +6% NED |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Poland 25% · draw 27% · Netherlands 47%
- Final margin
- Netherlands by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Netherlands
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Netherlands by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Poland 27% · draw 28% · Netherlands 46% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Netherlands win 59% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 1, 2024
- Germany 5–1 Scotland Jun 14, 2024 · replay 96% for Germany
- Hungary 1–3 Switzerland Jun 15, 2024 · replay 82% for Switzerland
- Spain 3–0 Croatia Jun 15, 2024 · replay 58% for Spain
- Italy 2–1 Albania Jun 15, 2024 · replay 80% for Italy
- Serbia 0–1 England Jun 16, 2024 · replay 63% for England
- Slovenia 1–1 Denmark Jun 16, 2024 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Romania 3–0 Ukraine Jun 17, 2024 · replay 79% for Romania
- Austria 0–1 France Jun 17, 2024 · replay 81% for France
- Belgium 0–1 Slovakia Jun 17, 2024 · replay 33% for Slovakia
- Portugal 2–1 Czech Republic Jun 18, 2024 · replay 84% for Portugal
- Turkey 3–1 Georgia Jun 18, 2024 · replay 74% for Turkey