Matchday 1 · Euro 2024 · June 17, 2024
Austria 0–1 France: who deserved to win?
France beat Austria 1–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, France win 7 of 10, 2 end level. France made the better chances: 1.9 expected goals to 0.8. An own goal helped France.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +19 France about even · −19 Austria
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Austria win 1, 2 end level, France win 7.
- 1 AUT 3 FRA 2
- 2 AUT 1 FRA 1
- 3 AUT 0 FRA 0
- 4 AUT 0 FRA 5
- 5 AUT 0 FRA 4
- 6 AUT 0 FRA 3
- 7 AUT 0 FRA 2
- 8 AUT 0 FRA 2
- 9 AUT 1 FRA 2
- 10 AUT 0 FRA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Austria win 10%, 17% end level, France win 72%. The line is what actually happened: France by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Austria by 3+ | 0.5% |
| Austria by 2 | 1.9% |
| Austria by 1 | 7.8% |
| Draw | 17.4% |
| France by 1 | 22.8% |
| France by 2 | 21.9% |
| France by 3+ | 27.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Austria | 5 | 0 | 0.75 | −0.75 |
 France | 14 | 0 | 1.90 | −1.90 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 35' | Christoph Baumgartner didn’t score from a shot | 0.47 |
| 54' | Kylian Mbappé Lottin didn’t score from a shot | 0.40 |
| 65' | Antoine Griezmann didn’t score from a shot | 0.70 |
When it happened
Austria’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | Kylian Mbappé Lottin didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% AUT |
| 2 | 18' | Antoine Griezmann didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% AUT |
| 3 | 18' | Marcus Thuram didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% AUT |
| 4 | 35' | Christoph Baumgartner didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 47% chance | +13% FRA |
| 5 | 37' | Own goal by nan, for FranceOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +28% FRA |
| 6 | 54' | Kylian Mbappé Lottin didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 40% chance | +5% AUT |
| 7 | 65' | Antoine Griezmann didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 70% chance | +8% AUT |
| 8 | 77' | Christoph Baumgartner didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +8% FRA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Austria 9% · draw 22% · France 69%
- Final margin
- France by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for France
- Luck-adjusted margin
- France by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Austria 10% · draw 17% · France 72% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). France win 81% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 1, 2024
- Germany 5–1 Scotland Jun 14, 2024 · replay 96% for Germany
- Hungary 1–3 Switzerland Jun 15, 2024 · replay 82% for Switzerland
- Spain 3–0 Croatia Jun 15, 2024 · replay 58% for Spain
- Italy 2–1 Albania Jun 15, 2024 · replay 80% for Italy
- Serbia 0–1 England Jun 16, 2024 · replay 63% for England
- Poland 1–2 Netherlands Jun 16, 2024 · replay 59% for Netherlands
- Slovenia 1–1 Denmark Jun 16, 2024 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Romania 3–0 Ukraine Jun 17, 2024 · replay 79% for Romania
- Belgium 0–1 Slovakia Jun 17, 2024 · replay 33% for Slovakia
- Portugal 2–1 Czech Republic Jun 18, 2024 · replay 84% for Portugal
- Turkey 3–1 Georgia Jun 18, 2024 · replay 74% for Turkey