Matchday 1 · Euro 2024 · June 18, 2024
Portugal 2–1 Czech Republic: who deserved to win?
Portugal beat Czech Republic 2–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Portugal win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Portugal made the better chances: 1.8 expected goals to 0.3. An own goal helped Portugal.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Portugal | 2 | 1.84 |
 Czech Republic | 1 | 0.31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +16 Portugal about even · −16 Czech Republic
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Portugal win 7, 2 end level, Czech Republic win 1.
- 1 POR 1 CZE 0
- 2 POR 2 CZE 1
- 3 POR 1 CZE 0
- 4 POR 2 CZE 0
- 5 POR 2 CZE 0
- 6 POR 3 CZE 0
- 7 POR 4 CZE 0
- 8 POR 1 CZE 1
- 9 POR 1 CZE 1
- 10 POR 1 CZE 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Portugal win 74%, 19% end level, Czech Republic win 6%. The line is what actually happened: Portugal by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Portugal by 3+ | 23.5% |
| Portugal by 2 | 23.8% |
| Portugal by 1 | 27.0% |
| Draw | 19.4% |
| Czech Republic by 1 | 5.1% |
| Czech Republic by 2 | 1.1% |
| Czech Republic by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Portugal | 19 | 1 | 1.84 | −0.84 |
 Czech Republic | 5 | 1 | 0.31 | +0.69 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 31' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shot | 0.49 |
| 61' | Lukáš Provod scored from a shot | 0.04 |
| 91' | Francisco Fernandes Conceição scored from a shot | 0.59 |
When it happened
Portugal’s chance of winning
As low as 12% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 31' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 49% chance | +14% CZE |
| 2 | 32' | Vitor Machado Ferreira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% CZE |
| 3 | 54' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% CZE |
| 4 | 61' | Lukáš Provod scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +34% CZE |
| 5 | 68' | The game turned hereOwn goal by nan, for PortugalOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +37% POR |
| 6 | 80' | Petr Ševčík didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +5% POR |
| 7 | 80' | Tomáš Souček didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% POR |
| 8 | 91' | Francisco Fernandes Conceição scored from a shotFinishing · 59% chance | +20% POR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Portugal 80% · draw 16% · Czech Republic 5%
- Final margin
- Portugal by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Czech Republic
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Portugal by 1.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Portugal 74% · draw 19% · Czech Republic 6% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Portugal win 84% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 1, 2024
- Germany 5–1 Scotland Jun 14, 2024 · replay 96% for Germany
- Hungary 1–3 Switzerland Jun 15, 2024 · replay 82% for Switzerland
- Spain 3–0 Croatia Jun 15, 2024 · replay 58% for Spain
- Italy 2–1 Albania Jun 15, 2024 · replay 80% for Italy
- Serbia 0–1 England Jun 16, 2024 · replay 63% for England
- Poland 1–2 Netherlands Jun 16, 2024 · replay 59% for Netherlands
- Slovenia 1–1 Denmark Jun 16, 2024 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Romania 3–0 Ukraine Jun 17, 2024 · replay 79% for Romania
- Austria 0–1 France Jun 17, 2024 · replay 81% for France
- Belgium 0–1 Slovakia Jun 17, 2024 · replay 33% for Slovakia
- Turkey 3–1 Georgia Jun 18, 2024 · replay 74% for Turkey