Matchday 1 · Euro 2024 · June 16, 2024
Slovenia 1–1 Denmark: who deserved to win?
Slovenia and Denmark drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Slovenia win 2 of 10, Denmark 6, and 2 end level. Denmark made the better chances: 1.5 expected goals to 1.0.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +20 Slovenia about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Slovenia win 2, 2 end level, Denmark win 6.
- 1 SVN 3 DEN 2
- 2 SVN 4 DEN 2
- 3 SVN 1 DEN 1
- 4 SVN 1 DEN 1
- 5 SVN 0 DEN 4
- 6 SVN 2 DEN 5
- 7 SVN 2 DEN 4
- 8 SVN 0 DEN 2
- 9 SVN 1 DEN 2
- 10 SVN 0 DEN 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Slovenia win 18%, 24% end level, Denmark win 58%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Slovenia by 3+ | 1.6% |
| Slovenia by 2 | 4.5% |
| Slovenia by 1 | 12.3% |
| Draw | 23.8% |
| Denmark by 1 | 24.8% |
| Denmark by 2 | 17.7% |
| Denmark by 3+ | 15.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Slovenia | 11 | 1 | 0.97 | +0.03 |
 Denmark | 16 | 1 | 1.51 | −0.51 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 16' | Christian Dannemann Eriksen scored from a shot | 0.28 |
| 64' | Rasmus Winther Højlund didn’t score from a shot | 0.45 |
| 73' | Andraž Šporar didn’t score from a shot | 0.33 |
| 76' | Erik Janža scored from a shot | 0.01 |
When it happened
Slovenia’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16' | Christian Dannemann Eriksen scored from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +18% DEN |
| 2 | 64' | Rasmus Winther Højlund didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 45% chance | +5% SVN |
| 3 | 65' | Adam Gnezda Čerin didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +7% DEN |
| 4 | 73' | Andraž Šporar didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 33% chance | +14% DEN |
| 5 | 76' | Erik Janža scored from a shotFinishing · 1% chance | +41% SVN |
| 6 | 78' | Andraž Šporar didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +8% DEN |
| 7 | 78' | Andraž Šporar didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +5% DEN |
| 8 | 85' | Morten Hjulmand didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% SVN |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Slovenia 22% · draw 28% · Denmark 50%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Slovenia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Denmark by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Slovenia 18% · draw 24% · Denmark 58% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 1, 2024
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- Austria 0–1 France Jun 17, 2024 · replay 81% for France
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- Portugal 2–1 Czech Republic Jun 18, 2024 · replay 84% for Portugal
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