Matchday 1 · Euro 2024 · June 15, 2024
Spain 3–0 Croatia: who deserved to win?
Spain beat Croatia 3–0, and the replays lean Spain’s way: 5 wins in 10, 3 for Croatia, 2 end level. Croatia made the better chances: 2.5 expected goals to 1.6.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +42 Spain lucky · −42 Croatia
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Spain win 5, 2 end level, Croatia win 3.
- 1 ESP 2 CRO 1
- 2 ESP 2 CRO 1
- 3 ESP 3 CRO 1
- 4 ESP 4 CRO 2
- 5 ESP 5 CRO 1
- 6 ESP 1 CRO 1
- 7 ESP 1 CRO 1
- 8 ESP 0 CRO 3
- 9 ESP 1 CRO 2
- 10 ESP 1 CRO 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Spain win 47%, 21% end level, Croatia win 32%. The line is what actually happened: Spain by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Spain by 3+ | 14.1% |
| Spain by 2 | 13.9% |
| Spain by 1 | 19.4% |
| Draw | 20.7% |
| Croatia by 1 | 16.3% |
| Croatia by 2 | 9.6% |
| Croatia by 3+ | 6.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Spain | 11 | 3 | 1.57 | +1.43 |
 Croatia | 16 (1 pen) | 0 | 2.48 | −2.48 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 28' | Álvaro Borja Morata Martín scored from a shot | 0.43 |
| 31' | Fabián Ruiz Peña scored from a shot | 0.06 |
| 46' | Daniel Carvajal Ramos scored from a shot | 0.30 |
| 54' | Andrej Kramarić didn’t score from a shot | 0.71 |
| 79' | Bruno Petković didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Spain’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6' | Álvaro Borja Morata Martín didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% CRO |
| 2 | 21' | Ante Budimir didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% ESP |
| 3 | 28' | Álvaro Borja Morata Martín scored from a shotFinishing · 43% chance | +16% ESP |
| 4 | 29' | Mateo Kovačić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% ESP |
| 5 | 31' | Fabián Ruiz Peña scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +14% ESP |
| 6 | 32' | Lovro Majer didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +2% ESP |
| 7 | 46' | Daniel Carvajal Ramos scored from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +3% ESP |
| 8 | 54' | Andrej Kramarić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 71% chance | +2% ESP |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Spain 40% · draw 26% · Croatia 34%
- Final margin
- Spain by 3
- Luck in goals
- 2.9 for Spain
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Spain by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Spain 47% · draw 21% · Croatia 32% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Spain win 58% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 1, 2024
- Germany 5–1 Scotland Jun 14, 2024 · replay 96% for Germany
- Hungary 1–3 Switzerland Jun 15, 2024 · replay 82% for Switzerland
- Italy 2–1 Albania Jun 15, 2024 · replay 80% for Italy
- Serbia 0–1 England Jun 16, 2024 · replay 63% for England
- Poland 1–2 Netherlands Jun 16, 2024 · replay 59% for Netherlands
- Slovenia 1–1 Denmark Jun 16, 2024 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Romania 3–0 Ukraine Jun 17, 2024 · replay 79% for Romania
- Austria 0–1 France Jun 17, 2024 · replay 81% for France
- Belgium 0–1 Slovakia Jun 17, 2024 · replay 33% for Slovakia
- Portugal 2–1 Czech Republic Jun 18, 2024 · replay 84% for Portugal
- Turkey 3–1 Georgia Jun 18, 2024 · replay 74% for Turkey