luckadjusted
Euro Final · 2024

Matchday 1 · Euro 2024 · June 16, 2024

Serbia 0–1 England: who deserved to win?

England beat Serbia 1–0, and the replays lean England’s way: 4 wins in 10, 1 for Serbia, 5 end level. England made the better chances: 0.6 expected goals to 0.3.

Full time

GoalsxG
Serbia 0 0.25
England 1 0.56

June 16, 2024 · VELTINS-Arena · Referee: Daniele Orsato

Luck index +37 England lucky · −37 Serbia

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Serbia win 1, 5 end level, England win 4.

  1. 1 SRB 1 ENG 0
  2. 2 SRB 0 ENG 0
  3. 3 SRB 0 ENG 0
  4. 4 SRB 0 ENG 0
  5. 5 SRB 0 ENG 0
  6. 6 SRB 0 ENG 0
  7. 7 SRB 0 ENG 2
  8. 8 SRB 0 ENG 1
  9. 9 SRB 0 ENG 1
  10. 10 SRB 0 ENG 1

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Serbia win 13%, 48% end level, England win 39%. The line is what actually happened: England by 1.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Serbia by 3+0.1%
Serbia by 21.6%
Serbia by 111.2%
Draw48.0%
England by 127.7%
England by 28.8%
England by 3+2.6%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Serbia600.25−0.25
England510.56+0.44

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

The big chances, and every goal

MinuteChancexG
12'Jude Bellingham scored from a shot0.29

When it happened

Serbia’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Serbia was ahead in it, below while England was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 12' Jude Bellingham scored from a shotFinishing · 29% chance +18% ENG
2 19' Aleksandar Mitrović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance +2% ENG
3 22' Dušan Vlahović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance +1% ENG
4 29' Trent Alexander-Arnold didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 5% chance +1% SRB
5 76' Harry Kane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance +1% SRB
6 81' Dušan Vlahović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance +2% ENG
7 82' Veljko Birmančević didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance +1% ENG
8 92' Ivan Ilić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 2% chance +1% ENG

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Serbia 14% · draw 46% · England 40%

Final margin
England by 1
Luck in goals
0.5 for England
Luck-adjusted margin
England by 0.5
Replay with same day's form
Serbia 13% · draw 48% · England 39% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this match and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a chance goes in.

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). England win 63% of replays (a draw counted as half).

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