Matchday 1 · Euro 2024 · June 15, 2024
Italy 2–1 Albania: who deserved to win?
Italy beat Albania 2–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Italy win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Italy made the better chances: 1.4 expected goals to 0.3.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +20 Italy about even · −20 Albania
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Italy win 7, 2 end level, Albania win 1.
- 1 ITA 1 ALB 0
- 2 ITA 1 ALB 0
- 3 ITA 1 ALB 0
- 4 ITA 2 ALB 0
- 5 ITA 2 ALB 0
- 6 ITA 3 ALB 0
- 7 ITA 4 ALB 0
- 8 ITA 0 ALB 0
- 9 ITA 1 ALB 1
- 10 ITA 0 ALB 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Italy win 69%, 22% end level, Albania win 9%. The line is what actually happened: Italy by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Italy by 3+ | 18.1% |
| Italy by 2 | 21.9% |
| Italy by 1 | 29.1% |
| Draw | 22.3% |
| Albania by 1 | 6.9% |
| Albania by 2 | 1.5% |
| Albania by 3+ | 0.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Italy | 17 | 2 | 1.45 | +0.55 |
 Albania | 8 | 1 | 0.35 | +0.65 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 0' | Nedim Bajrami scored from a shot | 0.09 |
| 10' | Alessandro Bastoni scored from a shot | 0.14 |
| 15' | Nicolò Barella scored from a shot | 0.08 |
When it happened
Italy’s chance of winning
As low as 26% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0' | Nedim Bajrami scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +21% ALB |
| 2 | 1' | Lorenzo Pellegrini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +5% ALB |
| 3 | 10' | The game turned hereAlessandro Bastoni scored from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +21% ITA |
| 4 | 15' | Nicolò Barella scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +23% ITA |
| 5 | 20' | Riccardo Calafiori didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +3% ALB |
| 6 | 32' | Davide Frattesi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +3% ALB |
| 7 | 46' | Lorenzo Pellegrini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +2% ALB |
| 8 | 89' | Rey Manaj didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +5% ITA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Italy 68% · draw 24% · Albania 8%
- Final margin
- Italy by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for Albania
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Italy by 1.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Italy 69% · draw 22% · Albania 9% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Italy win 80% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 1, 2024
- Germany 5–1 Scotland Jun 14, 2024 · replay 96% for Germany
- Hungary 1–3 Switzerland Jun 15, 2024 · replay 82% for Switzerland
- Spain 3–0 Croatia Jun 15, 2024 · replay 58% for Spain
- Serbia 0–1 England Jun 16, 2024 · replay 63% for England
- Poland 1–2 Netherlands Jun 16, 2024 · replay 59% for Netherlands
- Slovenia 1–1 Denmark Jun 16, 2024 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Romania 3–0 Ukraine Jun 17, 2024 · replay 79% for Romania
- Austria 0–1 France Jun 17, 2024 · replay 81% for France
- Belgium 0–1 Slovakia Jun 17, 2024 · replay 33% for Slovakia
- Portugal 2–1 Czech Republic Jun 18, 2024 · replay 84% for Portugal
- Turkey 3–1 Georgia Jun 18, 2024 · replay 74% for Turkey