Matchday 1 · Euro 2024 · June 15, 2024
Hungary 1–3 Switzerland: who deserved to win?
Switzerland beat Hungary 3–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Switzerland win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Switzerland made the better chances: 2.1 expected goals to 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Hungary | 1 | 1.10 |
 Switzerland | 3 | 2.10 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +19 Switzerland about even · −19 Hungary
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Hungary win 1, 2 end level, Switzerland win 7.
- 1 HUN 2 SUI 1
- 2 HUN 2 SUI 2
- 3 HUN 1 SUI 1
- 4 HUN 0 SUI 5
- 5 HUN 0 SUI 4
- 6 HUN 0 SUI 3
- 7 HUN 0 SUI 2
- 8 HUN 0 SUI 2
- 9 HUN 0 SUI 1
- 10 HUN 0 SUI 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Hungary win 11%, 16% end level, Switzerland win 74%. The line is what actually happened: Switzerland by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Hungary by 3+ | 0.8% |
| Hungary by 2 | 2.1% |
| Hungary by 1 | 7.5% |
| Draw | 16.0% |
| Switzerland by 1 | 20.8% |
| Switzerland by 2 | 21.4% |
| Switzerland by 3+ | 31.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hungary | 6 | 1 | 1.10 | −0.10 |
 Switzerland | 15 | 3 | 2.10 | +0.90 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 11' | Kwadwo Duah scored from a shot | 0.39 |
| 19' | Ruben Vargas didn’t score from a shot | 0.45 |
| 44' | Michel Aebischer scored from a shot | 0.04 |
| 65' | Barnabás Varga scored from a shot | 0.58 |
| 92' | Breel-Donald Embolo scored from a shot | 0.44 |
When it happened
Hungary’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1' | Attila Szalai didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% SUI |
| 2 | 11' | Kwadwo Duah scored from a shotFinishing · 39% chance | +15% SUI |
| 3 | 19' | Ruben Vargas didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 45% chance | +7% HUN |
| 4 | 39' | Willi Orban didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% SUI |
| 5 | 44' | Michel Aebischer scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +14% SUI |
| 6 | 62' | Barnabás Varga didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +2% SUI |
| 7 | 65' | Barnabás Varga scored from a shotFinishing · 58% chance | +5% HUN |
| 8 | 68' | Roland Sallai didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% SUI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Hungary 5% · draw 11% · Switzerland 83%
- Final margin
- Switzerland by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.8 for Switzerland
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Switzerland by 1.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Hungary 11% · draw 16% · Switzerland 74% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Switzerland win 82% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 1, 2024
- Germany 5–1 Scotland Jun 14, 2024 · replay 96% for Germany
- Spain 3–0 Croatia Jun 15, 2024 · replay 58% for Spain
- Italy 2–1 Albania Jun 15, 2024 · replay 80% for Italy
- Serbia 0–1 England Jun 16, 2024 · replay 63% for England
- Poland 1–2 Netherlands Jun 16, 2024 · replay 59% for Netherlands
- Slovenia 1–1 Denmark Jun 16, 2024 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Romania 3–0 Ukraine Jun 17, 2024 · replay 79% for Romania
- Austria 0–1 France Jun 17, 2024 · replay 81% for France
- Belgium 0–1 Slovakia Jun 17, 2024 · replay 33% for Slovakia
- Portugal 2–1 Czech Republic Jun 18, 2024 · replay 84% for Portugal
- Turkey 3–1 Georgia Jun 18, 2024 · replay 74% for Turkey