Matchday 1 · Euro 2024 · June 17, 2024
Romania 3–0 Ukraine: who deserved to win?
Romania beat Ukraine 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Romania win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Romania made the better chances: 1.1 expected goals to 0.5.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +21 Romania about even · −21 Ukraine
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Romania win 7, 2 end level, Ukraine win 1.
- 1 ROU 1 UKR 0
- 2 ROU 1 UKR 0
- 3 ROU 2 UKR 1
- 4 ROU 2 UKR 0
- 5 ROU 3 UKR 1
- 6 ROU 2 UKR 0
- 7 ROU 4 UKR 0
- 8 ROU 0 UKR 0
- 9 ROU 1 UKR 1
- 10 ROU 0 UKR 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Romania win 67%, 23% end level, Ukraine win 9%. The line is what actually happened: Romania by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Romania by 3+ | 17.6% |
| Romania by 2 | 21.1% |
| Romania by 1 | 28.5% |
| Draw | 23.3% |
| Ukraine by 1 | 7.5% |
| Ukraine by 2 | 1.8% |
| Ukraine by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Romania | 10 | 3 | 1.12 | +1.88 |
 Ukraine | 13 | 0 | 0.54 | −0.54 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 28' | Nicolae Claudiu Stanciu scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 52' | Răzvan Gabriel Marin scored from a shot | 0.02 |
| 56' | Denis Mihai Drăguş scored from a shot | 0.88 |
When it happened
Romania’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6' | Viktor Tsygankov didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% ROU |
| 2 | 7' | Florinel Teodor Coman didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +1% UKR |
| 3 | 11' | Georgiy Sudakov didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% ROU |
| 4 | 21' | Artem Dovbyk didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% ROU |
| 5 | 28' | Nicolae Claudiu Stanciu scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +26% ROU |
| 6 | 37' | Viktor Tsygankov didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% ROU |
| 7 | 51' | Mykhailo Mudryk didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% ROU |
| 8 | 52' | Răzvan Gabriel Marin scored from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +13% ROU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Romania 88% · draw 10% · Ukraine 2%
- Final margin
- Romania by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.8 for Romania
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Romania by 1.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Romania 67% · draw 23% · Ukraine 9% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Romania win 79% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 1, 2024
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- Spain 3–0 Croatia Jun 15, 2024 · replay 58% for Spain
- Italy 2–1 Albania Jun 15, 2024 · replay 80% for Italy
- Serbia 0–1 England Jun 16, 2024 · replay 63% for England
- Poland 1–2 Netherlands Jun 16, 2024 · replay 59% for Netherlands
- Slovenia 1–1 Denmark Jun 16, 2024 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Austria 0–1 France Jun 17, 2024 · replay 81% for France
- Belgium 0–1 Slovakia Jun 17, 2024 · replay 33% for Slovakia
- Portugal 2–1 Czech Republic Jun 18, 2024 · replay 84% for Portugal
- Turkey 3–1 Georgia Jun 18, 2024 · replay 74% for Turkey