Matchday 1 · Euro 2024 · June 17, 2024
Belgium 0–1 Slovakia: who deserved to win?
Slovakia beat Belgium 1–0, but the replays lean toward Belgium: 5 wins in 10 to Slovakia’s 3, 2 end level. Belgium made the better chances: 1.8 expected goals to 0.7.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +67 Slovakia very lucky · −67 Belgium
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Belgium win 5, 2 end level, Slovakia win 3.
- 1 BEL 2 SVK 1
- 2 BEL 1 SVK 0
- 3 BEL 2 SVK 0
- 4 BEL 2 SVK 0
- 5 BEL 3 SVK 0
- 6 BEL 0 SVK 0
- 7 BEL 2 SVK 2
- 8 BEL 0 SVK 2
- 9 BEL 0 SVK 1
- 10 BEL 1 SVK 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Belgium win 55%, 25% end level, Slovakia win 21%. The line is what actually happened: Slovakia by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Belgium by 3+ | 11.6% |
| Belgium by 2 | 16.5% |
| Belgium by 1 | 26.6% |
| Draw | 24.6% |
| Slovakia by 1 | 14.5% |
| Slovakia by 2 | 4.6% |
| Slovakia by 3+ | 1.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Belgium | 16 | 0 | 1.75 | −1.75 |
 Slovakia | 10 | 1 | 0.71 | +0.29 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 2' | Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shot | 0.55 |
| 6' | Ivan Schranz scored from a shot | 0.07 |
When it happened
Belgium’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Kevin De Bruyne didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% SVK |
| 2 | 2' | Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 55% chance | +13% SVK |
| 3 | 6' | Juraj Kucka didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +4% BEL |
| 4 | 6' | Ivan Schranz scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +22% SVK |
| 5 | 58' | Leandro Trossard didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% SVK |
| 6 | 60' | Yannick Ferreira Carrasco didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% SVK |
| 7 | 61' | Johan Bakayoko didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +7% SVK |
| 8 | 92' | Kevin De Bruyne didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +6% SVK |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Belgium 65% · draw 21% · Slovakia 14%
- Final margin
- Slovakia by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.5 for Slovakia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Belgium by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Belgium 55% · draw 25% · Slovakia 21% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Slovakia win 33% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 1, 2024
- Germany 5–1 Scotland Jun 14, 2024 · replay 96% for Germany
- Hungary 1–3 Switzerland Jun 15, 2024 · replay 82% for Switzerland
- Spain 3–0 Croatia Jun 15, 2024 · replay 58% for Spain
- Italy 2–1 Albania Jun 15, 2024 · replay 80% for Italy
- Serbia 0–1 England Jun 16, 2024 · replay 63% for England
- Poland 1–2 Netherlands Jun 16, 2024 · replay 59% for Netherlands
- Slovenia 1–1 Denmark Jun 16, 2024 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Romania 3–0 Ukraine Jun 17, 2024 · replay 79% for Romania
- Austria 0–1 France Jun 17, 2024 · replay 81% for France
- Portugal 2–1 Czech Republic Jun 18, 2024 · replay 84% for Portugal
- Turkey 3–1 Georgia Jun 18, 2024 · replay 74% for Turkey