luckadjusted
Euro Final · 2024

Matchday 1 · Euro 2024 · June 18, 2024

Turkey 3–1 Georgia: who deserved to win?

Turkey beat Georgia 3–1, and the replays lean Turkey’s way: 7 wins in 10, 1 for Georgia, 2 end level. Turkey made the better chances: 2.4 expected goals to 1.6.

Full time

GoalsxG
Turkey 3 2.40
Georgia 1 1.58

June 18, 2024 · Signal-Iduna-Park · Referee: Facundo Tello Figueroa

Luck index +26 Turkey lucky · −26 Georgia

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Turkey win 7, 2 end level, Georgia win 1.

  1. 1 TUR 2 GEO 1
  2. 2 TUR 2 GEO 1
  3. 3 TUR 4 GEO 2
  4. 4 TUR 3 GEO 1
  5. 5 TUR 4 GEO 1
  6. 6 TUR 6 GEO 2
  7. 7 TUR 5 GEO 0
  8. 8 TUR 0 GEO 0
  9. 9 TUR 2 GEO 2
  10. 10 TUR 1 GEO 3

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Turkey win 65%, 17% end level, Georgia win 18%. The line is what actually happened: Turkey by 2.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Turkey by 3+27.0%
Turkey by 218.1%
Turkey by 120.0%
Draw17.0%
Georgia by 110.7%
Georgia by 24.9%
Georgia by 3+2.4%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Turkey2232.40+0.60
Georgia1411.58−0.58

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

The big chances, and every goal

MinuteChancexG
24'Mert Müldür scored from a shot0.05
26'Orkun Kökçü didn’t score from a shot0.32
31'Georges Mikautadze scored from a shot0.20
45'Mert Müldür didn’t score from a shot0.39
64'Arda Güler scored from a shot0.02
68'Orkun Kökçü didn’t score from a shot0.35
69'Giorgi Kochorashvili didn’t score from a shot0.38
92'Giorgi Kochorashvili didn’t score from a shot0.34
96'Muhammed Kerem Aktürkoğlu scored from a shot0.47

When it happened

Turkey’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Turkey was ahead in it, below while Georgia was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 24' Mert Müldür scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance +25% TUR
2 26' Orkun Kökçü didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 32% chance +5% GEO
3 31' Georges Mikautadze scored from a shotFinishing · 20% chance +22% GEO
4 45' Mert Müldür didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 39% chance +12% GEO
5 61' Khvicha Kvaratskhelia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance +5% TUR
6 64' Arda Güler scored from a shotFinishing · 2% chance +36% TUR
7 69' Giorgi Kochorashvili didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 38% chance +15% TUR
8 92' Giorgi Kochorashvili didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 34% chance +17% TUR

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Turkey 78% · draw 13% · Georgia 9%

Final margin
Turkey by 2
Luck in goals
0.9 for Turkey
Luck-adjusted margin
Turkey by 1.1
Replay with same day's form
Turkey 65% · draw 17% · Georgia 18% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this match and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a chance goes in.

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Turkey win 74% of replays (a draw counted as half).

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