luckadjusted
Euro Final · 2024

Matchday 3 · Euro 2024 · June 23, 2024

Scotland 0–1 Hungary: who deserved to win?

Hungary beat Scotland 1–0, and the replays lean Hungary’s way: 5 wins in 10, 1 for Scotland, 4 end level. Hungary made the better chances: 1.0 expected goals to 0.2.

Full time

GoalsxG
Scotland 0 0.18
Hungary 1 1.00

June 23, 2024 · MHPArena · Referee: Facundo Tello Figueroa

Luck index +27 Hungary lucky · −27 Scotland

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Scotland win 1, 4 end level, Hungary win 5.

  1. 1 SCO 1 HUN 0
  2. 2 SCO 0 HUN 0
  3. 3 SCO 0 HUN 0
  4. 4 SCO 0 HUN 0
  5. 5 SCO 0 HUN 0
  6. 6 SCO 1 HUN 4
  7. 7 SCO 0 HUN 2
  8. 8 SCO 1 HUN 2
  9. 9 SCO 1 HUN 2
  10. 10 SCO 0 HUN 1

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Scotland win 9%, 36% end level, Hungary win 56%. The line is what actually happened: Hungary by 1.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Scotland by 3+0.1%
Scotland by 20.7%
Scotland by 18.2%
Draw35.6%
Hungary by 131.4%
Hungary by 216.6%
Hungary by 3+7.4%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Scotland400.18−0.18
Hungary1411.000.00

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

The big chances, and every goal

MinuteChancexG
99'Kevin Csoboth scored from a shot0.26

When it happened

Scotland’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Scotland was ahead in it, below while Hungary was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 40' Willi Orban didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance +4% SCO
2 48' Roland Sallai didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance +2% SCO
3 63' Márton Dárdai didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance +2% SCO
4 90' Dominik Szoboszlai didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance +3% SCO
5 91' Kevin Csoboth didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance +9% SCO
6 97' Lewis Morgan didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance +3% HUN
7 99' Callum McGregor didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance +4% HUN
8 99' Kevin Csoboth scored from a shotFinishing · 26% chance +37% HUN

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Scotland 8% · draw 32% · Hungary 60%

Final margin
Hungary by 1
Luck in goals
0.1 for Hungary
Luck-adjusted margin
Hungary by 0.9
Replay with same day's form
Scotland 9% · draw 36% · Hungary 56% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this match and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a chance goes in.

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Hungary win 73% of replays (a draw counted as half).

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