Matchday 3 · Euro 2024 · June 26, 2024
Czech Republic 1–2 Turkey: who deserved to win?
Turkey beat Czech Republic 2–1, but the replays call it even: Turkey win 3 of 10, Czech Republic 4, 3 end level. The chances were close to even (1.4 expected goals to 1.2).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Czech Republic | 1 | 1.41 |
 Turkey | 2 | 1.22 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +53 Turkey lucky · −53 Czech Republic
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Czech Republic win 4, 3 end level, Turkey win 3.
- 1 CZE 2 TUR 1
- 2 CZE 2 TUR 1
- 3 CZE 4 TUR 2
- 4 CZE 3 TUR 0
- 5 CZE 2 TUR 2
- 6 CZE 1 TUR 1
- 7 CZE 0 TUR 0
- 8 CZE 0 TUR 3
- 9 CZE 2 TUR 3
- 10 CZE 1 TUR 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Czech Republic win 40%, 26% end level, Turkey win 34%. The line is what actually happened: Turkey by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Czech Republic by 3+ | 6.2% |
| Czech Republic by 2 | 11.6% |
| Czech Republic by 1 | 21.9% |
| Draw | 25.9% |
| Turkey by 1 | 18.7% |
| Turkey by 2 | 10.4% |
| Turkey by 3+ | 5.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Czech Republic | 12 | 1 | 1.41 | −0.41 |
 Turkey | 18 | 2 | 1.22 | +0.78 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 50' | Hakan Çalhanoğlu scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 65' | Tomáš Chorý didn’t score from a shot | 0.55 |
| 65' | Tomáš Souček scored from a shot | 0.12 |
| 93' | Cenk Tosun scored from a shot | 0.09 |
When it happened
Czech Republic’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16' | Robin Hranáč didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +7% TUR |
| 2 | 26' | Arda Güler didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +5% CZE |
| 3 | 50' | Hakan Çalhanoğlu scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +30% TUR |
| 4 | 65' | Tomáš Chorý didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 55% chance | +20% TUR |
| 5 | 65' | Tomáš Souček scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +33% CZE |
| 6 | 72' | Kenan Yildiz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +7% CZE |
| 7 | 91' | Barış Alper Yılmaz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +5% CZE |
| 8 | 93' | Cenk Tosun scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +45% TUR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Czech Republic 42% · draw 26% · Turkey 33%
- Final margin
- Turkey by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for Turkey
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Turkey by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Czech Republic 40% · draw 26% · Turkey 34% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Turkey win 47% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 3, 2024
- Switzerland 1–1 Germany Jun 23, 2024 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Scotland 0–1 Hungary Jun 23, 2024 · replay 73% for Hungary
- Croatia 1–1 Italy Jun 24, 2024 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Albania 0–1 Spain Jun 24, 2024 · replay 70% for Spain
- England 0–0 Slovenia Jun 25, 2024 · drawn; replay 43% draws
- France 1–1 Poland Jun 25, 2024 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Netherlands 2–3 Austria Jun 25, 2024 · replay 49% for Austria
- Denmark 0–0 Serbia Jun 25, 2024 · drawn; replay 47% draws
- Georgia 2–0 Portugal Jun 26, 2024 · replay 48% for Georgia
- Ukraine 0–0 Belgium Jun 26, 2024 · drawn; replay 38% draws
- Slovakia 1–1 Romania Jun 26, 2024 · drawn; replay 31% draws