Matchday 3 · Euro 2024 · June 25, 2024
Netherlands 2–3 Austria: who deserved to win?
Austria beat Netherlands 3–2, but the replays call it even: Austria win 3 of 10, Netherlands 4, 3 end level. Netherlands made the better chances: 1.5 expected goals to 1.1. An own goal helped Austria.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Netherlands | 2 | 1.51 |
 Austria | 3 | 1.06 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +51 Austria lucky · −51 Netherlands
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Netherlands win 4, 3 end level, Austria win 3.
- 1 NED 1 AUT 0
- 2 NED 1 AUT 0
- 3 NED 2 AUT 0
- 4 NED 2 AUT 0
- 5 NED 2 AUT 2
- 6 NED 2 AUT 2
- 7 NED 1 AUT 1
- 8 NED 1 AUT 4
- 9 NED 1 AUT 2
- 10 NED 1 AUT 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Netherlands win 37%, 27% end level, Austria win 36%. The line is what actually happened: Austria by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Netherlands by 3+ | 5.8% |
| Netherlands by 2 | 11.1% |
| Netherlands by 1 | 20.6% |
| Draw | 26.5% |
| Austria by 1 | 20.2% |
| Austria by 2 | 9.8% |
| Austria by 3+ | 6.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Netherlands | 11 | 2 | 1.51 | +0.49 |
 Austria | 9 | 2 | 1.06 | +0.94 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 22' | Donyell Malen didn’t score from a shot | 0.35 |
| 37' | Marko Arnautović didn’t score from a shot | 0.46 |
| 40' | Memphis Depay didn’t score from a shot | 0.38 |
| 46' | Cody Mathès Gakpo scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 58' | Romano Schmid scored from a shot | 0.18 |
| 74' | Memphis Depay scored from a shot | 0.12 |
| 79' | Marcel Sabitzer scored from a shot | 0.13 |
When it happened
Netherlands’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5' | Own goal by nan, for AustriaOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +23% AUT |
| 2 | 22' | Donyell Malen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 35% chance | +9% AUT |
| 3 | 37' | Marko Arnautović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 46% chance | +7% NED |
| 4 | 40' | Memphis Depay didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 38% chance | +11% AUT |
| 5 | 46' | Cody Mathès Gakpo scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +27% NED |
| 6 | 58' | Romano Schmid scored from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +28% AUT |
| 7 | 74' | Memphis Depay scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +36% NED |
| 8 | 79' | Marcel Sabitzer scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +38% AUT |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Netherlands 47% · draw 29% · Austria 25%
- Final margin
- Austria by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.3 for Austria
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Netherlands by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Netherlands 37% · draw 27% · Austria 36% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Austria win 49% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 3, 2024
- Switzerland 1–1 Germany Jun 23, 2024 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Scotland 0–1 Hungary Jun 23, 2024 · replay 73% for Hungary
- Croatia 1–1 Italy Jun 24, 2024 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Albania 0–1 Spain Jun 24, 2024 · replay 70% for Spain
- England 0–0 Slovenia Jun 25, 2024 · drawn; replay 43% draws
- France 1–1 Poland Jun 25, 2024 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Denmark 0–0 Serbia Jun 25, 2024 · drawn; replay 47% draws
- Georgia 2–0 Portugal Jun 26, 2024 · replay 48% for Georgia
- Ukraine 0–0 Belgium Jun 26, 2024 · drawn; replay 38% draws
- Czech Republic 1–2 Turkey Jun 26, 2024 · replay 47% for Turkey
- Slovakia 1–1 Romania Jun 26, 2024 · drawn; replay 31% draws