luckadjusted
Euro Final · 2024

Matchday 3 · Euro 2024 · June 25, 2024

France 1–1 Poland: who deserved to win?

France and Poland drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, France win 6 of 10, Poland 2, and 2 end level. France made the better chances: 1.9 expected goals to 1.2.

Full time

GoalsxG
France 1 1.89
Poland 1 1.18

June 25, 2024 · Signal-Iduna-Park · Referee: Marco Guida

Luck index −18 France about even for the draw

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. France win 6, 2 end level, Poland win 2.

  1. 1 FRA 2 POL 1
  2. 2 FRA 1 POL 0
  3. 3 FRA 3 POL 2
  4. 4 FRA 2 POL 0
  5. 5 FRA 3 POL 0
  6. 6 FRA 6 POL 2
  7. 7 FRA 2 POL 2
  8. 8 FRA 1 POL 1
  9. 9 FRA 1 POL 3
  10. 10 FRA 1 POL 2

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

France win 57%, 22% end level, Poland win 22%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
France by 3+16.0%
France by 217.5%
France by 123.3%
Draw21.7%
Poland by 112.9%
Poland by 26.2%
Poland by 3+2.5%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
France19 (1 pen)11.89−0.89
Poland10 (1 pen)11.18−0.18

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

The big chances, and every goal

MinuteChancexG
55'Kylian Mbappé Lottin scored from a penalty0.78
78'Robert Lewandowski scored from a penalty0.78

When it happened

France’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while France was ahead in it, below while Poland was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 18' Ousmane Dembélé didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance +6% POL
2 41' Kylian Mbappé Lottin didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance +4% POL
3 41' Dayotchanculle Upamecano didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance +3% POL
4 55' Kylian Mbappé Lottin scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance +7% FRA
5 78' Robert Lewandowski scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance +9% POL
6 81' Robert Lewandowski didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance +4% FRA
7 84' Olivier Giroud didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance +5% POL
8 86' Olivier Giroud didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance +3% POL

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

France 54% · draw 28% · Poland 18%

Final margin
even
Luck in goals
0.5 for Poland
Luck-adjusted margin
France by 0.5
Replay with same day's form
France 57% · draw 22% · Poland 22% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this match and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a chance goes in.

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).

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