luckadjusted
Euro Final · 2024

Matchday 3 · Euro 2024 · June 25, 2024

Denmark 0–0 Serbia: who deserved to win?

Denmark and Serbia drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Denmark win 3 of 10, Serbia 2, and 5 end level. The chances were close to even (0.6 expected goals to 0.3).

Full time

GoalsxG
Denmark 0 0.55
Serbia 0 0.32

June 25, 2024 · Allianz Arena · Referee: François Letexier

Luck index −7 Denmark about even for the draw

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Denmark win 3, 5 end level, Serbia win 2.

  1. 1 DEN 1 SRB 0
  2. 2 DEN 1 SRB 0
  3. 3 DEN 2 SRB 0
  4. 4 DEN 1 SRB 1
  5. 5 DEN 0 SRB 0
  6. 6 DEN 0 SRB 0
  7. 7 DEN 0 SRB 0
  8. 8 DEN 0 SRB 0
  9. 9 DEN 0 SRB 1
  10. 10 DEN 0 SRB 1

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Denmark win 33%, 47% end level, Serbia win 19%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Denmark by 3+1.5%
Denmark by 27.8%
Denmark by 124.2%
Draw47.4%
Serbia by 116.0%
Serbia by 22.7%
Serbia by 3+0.4%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Denmark1000.55−0.55
Serbia500.32−0.32

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

When it happened

Denmark’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Denmark was ahead in it, below while Serbia was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 15' Alexander Hartmann Bah didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance +5% SRB
2 20' Christian Dannemann Eriksen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance +1% SRB
3 28' Aleksandar Mitrović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance +2% DEN
4 38' Jonas Older Wind didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance +3% SRB
5 64' Jannik Vestergaard didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance +2% SRB
6 82' Aleksandar Mitrović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance +3% DEN
7 88' Dušan Vlahović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance +3% DEN
8 91' Sergej Milinković-Savić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance +5% DEN

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Denmark 34% · draw 48% · Serbia 18%

Final margin
even
Luck in goals
0.2 for Serbia
Luck-adjusted margin
Denmark by 0.2
Replay with same day's form
Denmark 33% · draw 47% · Serbia 19% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).

All matchday 3 matches, 2024 · Denmark · Serbia

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