luckadjusted
Euro Final · 2024

Matchday 3 · Euro 2024 · June 24, 2024

Albania 0–1 Spain: who deserved to win?

Spain beat Albania 1–0, and the replays lean Spain’s way: 6 wins in 10, 1 for Albania, 3 end level. Spain made the better chances: 0.9 expected goals to 0.5.

Full time

GoalsxG
Albania 0 0.50
Spain 1 0.95

June 24, 2024 · Merkur Spiel-Arena · Referee: Glenn Nyberg

Luck index +30 Spain lucky · −30 Albania

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Albania win 1, 3 end level, Spain win 6.

  1. 1 ALB 1 ESP 0
  2. 2 ALB 1 ESP 1
  3. 3 ALB 1 ESP 1
  4. 4 ALB 1 ESP 1
  5. 5 ALB 0 ESP 3
  6. 6 ALB 0 ESP 2
  7. 7 ALB 0 ESP 2
  8. 8 ALB 0 ESP 1
  9. 9 ALB 0 ESP 1
  10. 10 ALB 0 ESP 1

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Albania win 14%, 31% end level, Spain win 55%. The line is what actually happened: Spain by 1.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Albania by 3+0.3%
Albania by 22.3%
Albania by 111.9%
Draw31.0%
Spain by 130.0%
Spain by 216.7%
Spain by 3+7.8%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Albania1000.50−0.50
Spain1610.95+0.05

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

The big chances, and every goal

MinuteChancexG
12'Ferrán Torres García scored from a shot0.10

When it happened

Albania’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Albania was ahead in it, below while Spain was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 11' José Luis Sanmartín Mato didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance +2% ALB
2 12' Ferrán Torres García scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance +22% ESP
3 35' Daniel Olmo Carvajal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance +2% ALB
4 47' Mikel Oyarzabal Ugarte didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance +3% ALB
5 63' Armando Broja didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance +4% ESP
6 83' Arbër Hoxha didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance +3% ESP
7 91' Berat Djimsiti didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance +2% ESP
8 91' Armando Broja didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance +6% ESP

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Albania 19% · draw 34% · Spain 47%

Final margin
Spain by 1
Luck in goals
0.4 for Spain
Luck-adjusted margin
Spain by 0.6
Replay with same day's form
Albania 14% · draw 31% · Spain 55% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this match and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a chance goes in.

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Spain win 70% of replays (a draw counted as half).

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