luckadjusted
Euro Final · 2024

Matchday 3 · Euro 2024 · June 26, 2024

Slovakia 1–1 Romania: who deserved to win?

Slovakia and Romania drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Slovakia win 3 of 10, Romania 4, and 3 end level. Romania made the better chances: 1.1 expected goals to 0.8.

Full time

GoalsxG
Slovakia 1 0.84
Romania 1 1.12

June 26, 2024 · Deutsche Bank Park · Referee: Daniel Siebert

Luck index +3 Slovakia about even for the draw

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Slovakia win 3, 3 end level, Romania win 4.

  1. 1 SVK 3 ROU 2
  2. 2 SVK 2 ROU 1
  3. 3 SVK 2 ROU 0
  4. 4 SVK 1 ROU 1
  5. 5 SVK 1 ROU 1
  6. 6 SVK 1 ROU 1
  7. 7 SVK 0 ROU 2
  8. 8 SVK 0 ROU 1
  9. 9 SVK 2 ROU 3
  10. 10 SVK 0 ROU 1

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Slovakia win 31%, 31% end level, Romania win 38%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Slovakia by 3+3.0%
Slovakia by 28.0%
Slovakia by 120.4%
Draw31.1%
Romania by 122.5%
Romania by 210.5%
Romania by 3+4.5%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Slovakia1310.84+0.16
Romania9 (1 pen)11.12−0.12

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

The big chances, and every goal

MinuteChancexG
23'Ondrej Duda scored from a shot0.11
36'Răzvan Gabriel Marin scored from a penalty0.78

When it happened

Slovakia’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Slovakia was ahead in it, below while Romania was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 0' David Strelec didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance +4% ROU
2 10' Andrei Florin Ratiu didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance +2% SVK
3 21' Milan Škriniar didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance +3% ROU
4 23' Ondrej Duda scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance +24% SVK
5 36' Răzvan Gabriel Marin scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance +6% ROU
6 60' Răzvan Gabriel Marin didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance +2% SVK
7 60' Denis Mihai Drăguş didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance +2% SVK
8 63' David Strelec didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance +4% ROU

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Slovakia 23% · draw 32% · Romania 45%

Final margin
even
Luck in goals
0.2 for Slovakia
Luck-adjusted margin
Romania by 0.2
Replay with same day's form
Slovakia 31% · draw 31% · Romania 38% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this match and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a chance goes in.

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).

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