luckadjusted
Euro Final · 2024

Matchday 3 · Euro 2024 · June 24, 2024

Croatia 1–1 Italy: who deserved to win?

Croatia and Italy drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Croatia win 5 of 10, Italy 2, and 3 end level. Croatia made the better chances: 1.5 expected goals to 1.0.

Full time

GoalsxG
Croatia 1 1.48
Italy 1 0.99

June 24, 2024 · Red Bull Arena · Referee: Danny Desmond Makkelie

Luck index −14 Croatia about even for the draw

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Croatia win 5, 3 end level, Italy win 2.

  1. 1 CRO 1 ITA 0
  2. 2 CRO 2 ITA 1
  3. 3 CRO 1 ITA 0
  4. 4 CRO 3 ITA 1
  5. 5 CRO 3 ITA 0
  6. 6 CRO 0 ITA 0
  7. 7 CRO 2 ITA 2
  8. 8 CRO 1 ITA 1
  9. 9 CRO 0 ITA 2
  10. 10 CRO 2 ITA 3

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Croatia win 51%, 26% end level, Italy win 23%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Croatia by 3+10.6%
Croatia by 215.9%
Croatia by 124.9%
Draw25.7%
Italy by 115.2%
Italy by 25.9%
Italy by 3+1.8%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Croatia6 (1 pen)11.48−0.48
Italy1310.99+0.01

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

The big chances, and every goal

MinuteChancexG
53'Luka Modrić didn’t score from a penalty0.78
54'Luka Modrić scored from a shot0.49
97'Mattia Zaccagni scored from a shot0.11

When it happened

Croatia’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Croatia was ahead in it, below while Italy was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 20' Mateo Retegui didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance +3% CRO
2 26' Alessandro Bastoni didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance +4% CRO
3 53' Luka Modrić didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance +26% ITA
4 54' Ante Budimir didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance +5% ITA
5 54' Luka Modrić scored from a shotFinishing · 49% chance +17% CRO
6 60' Alessandro Bastoni didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance +6% CRO
7 72' Giovanni Di Lorenzo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance +5% CRO
8 97' Mattia Zaccagni scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance +44% ITA

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Croatia 53% · draw 26% · Italy 20%

Final margin
even
Luck in goals
0.4 for Italy
Luck-adjusted margin
Croatia by 0.4
Replay with same day's form
Croatia 51% · draw 26% · Italy 23% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this match and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a chance goes in.

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).

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