luckadjusted
Euro Final · 2024

Matchday 3 · Euro 2024 · June 25, 2024

England 0–0 Slovenia: who deserved to win?

England and Slovenia drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, England win 5 of 10, Slovenia 1, and 4 end level. England made the better chances: 0.8 expected goals to 0.2.

Full time

GoalsxG
England 0 0.76
Slovenia 0 0.16

June 25, 2024 · RheinEnergieStadion · Referee: Clément Turpin

Luck index −20 England about even for the draw

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. England win 5, 4 end level, Slovenia win 1.

  1. 1 ENG 1 SVN 0
  2. 2 ENG 1 SVN 0
  3. 3 ENG 2 SVN 1
  4. 4 ENG 2 SVN 0
  5. 5 ENG 2 SVN 0
  6. 6 ENG 0 SVN 0
  7. 7 ENG 1 SVN 1
  8. 8 ENG 0 SVN 0
  9. 9 ENG 0 SVN 0
  10. 10 ENG 0 SVN 1

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

England win 48%, 43% end level, Slovenia win 9%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
England by 3+3.7%
England by 212.7%
England by 131.6%
Draw43.3%
Slovenia by 17.9%
Slovenia by 20.8%
Slovenia by 3+0.0%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
England1200.76−0.76
Slovenia400.16−0.16

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

The big chances, and every goal

MinuteChancexG
39'Harry Kane didn’t score from a shot0.40

When it happened

England’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while England was ahead in it, below while Slovenia was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 4' Benjamin Šeško didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance +2% ENG
2 29' Harry Kane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance +1% SVN
3 39' Harry Kane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 40% chance +12% SVN
4 57' John Stones didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance +2% SVN
5 74' Declan Rice didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance +1% SVN
6 82' Phil Foden didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance +2% SVN
7 91' Cole Palmer didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance +2% SVN
8 93' Trent Alexander-Arnold didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 2% chance +1% SVN

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

England 50% · draw 41% · Slovenia 9%

Final margin
even
Luck in goals
0.4 for Slovenia
Luck-adjusted margin
England by 0.4
Replay with same day's form
England 48% · draw 43% · Slovenia 9% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this match and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a chance goes in.

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).

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